Best MLB NRFI/YRFI July 30: How to bet the Atlanta Braves vs Milwaukee Brewers Tonight
By Mark Wallis
Happy Tuesday to you all! We are looking for a little bounce back today after yesterday's drubbing. The NRFI's went 5-7 overall yesterday, and have been below a 46.67% hit rate in three of the last four days.
That doesn't mean that there are not any opportunities to be had on today's schedule, far from it! We have some really big arms throwing today, and more importantly -- big time NRFI producers!
The first game that I will be tartgeting will be the Atlanta vs Milwaukee game.
The reason I really like this play is because we are getting two teams that have a very difficult time scoring a run in the first inning. Well, let me clarify that a little more, across the MLB, the Braves have the second highest NRFI% on the road this season, while the Brewers are over 75% NRFI at home this season.
Combine those team struggles to produce runs, with pitchers that have great first inning stats, and you get a fantastic opportunity for a NRFI.
MLB Best NRFI/YRFI Bets For Today
All odds listed are via Caesars Sportbook.
Atlanta Braves vs Milwaukee Brewers NRFI +100
I grabbing this at even money all day long!
Milwaukee is scheduled to have Joe Ross take the mound against the Braves tonight. Ross is coming off the 60-day IL for a lower back strain to make his fifth start at home this season. After undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2022, Ross was pitching very well in those four home starts, especially in the first inning. He logged a first inning .188 OPP BA and a 1.25 WHIP.
I like this spot for him to come back against the Braves, who are not just 85.19% NRFI on the road this season, but they also have a .122 BA in the first inning, on the road, over the last 30 days.
The Brewers will be facing Braves starter Bryce Elder in the bottom half of the inning. Elder has a 6-2 NRFI record overall and is a perfect 4-0 on the road this season. The Brewers are 76.00% NRFI at home this year and will have to contend with Elder's first inning .077 OPP BA and 0.25 WHIP.
Minnesota Twins vs New York Mets NRFI -125
Sean Manaea will take the mound for the Mets tonight against the Twins. Manaea has been a consistent NRFI producer, posting an impressive 17-3 NRFI record this season, including being 9-1 at home.
He will be facing a Twins team that is 72.73% NRFI at home and 7-3 NRFI in their last 10 games. Manaea has a first inning .206 OPP BA and a 1.10 WHIP.
David Festa will be making his second road start for the Twins tonight. Festa has been terrific in his starts this year from a NRFI standpoint. He is 2-0 NRFI on the year and will be facing a Mets team that is 82.14% NRFI at home this season and have posted scoreless first innings in 10 straight games. Fest registered a first inning .000 OPP BA and a 0.00 WHIP in his first road start and will be facing a Mets team that has a first inning .125 BA at home over the last 30 days.
Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds NRFI -120
The Cincinnati Reds will have Nick Martinez on the bump tonight to fave the Chicago Cubs. Martinez has posted a first inning .250 OPP BA and a 0.92 WHIP in his previous five home starts. The Cubs team he will face are 76.79% NRFI on the road and are 8-2 NRFI in their last 10 games.
The Cubs will have Justin Steele pitching in the bottom half of the inning. Steele has a perfect 8-0 NRFI record on the road to boost his 14-2 NRFI record overall. Steele has a first inning .115 OPP BA and a 0.63 WHIP, which should bode well for him against this Reds team that 74.07% NRFI at home this season.
3- Team No Run First Inning Parlay +120
- CWS White Sox- 81.82% NRFI Probability Score - 8-2 NRFI in last 10 games
- SD Padres- 75.47% NRFI Probability Score - 8-2 NRFI in last 10 games
- STL Cardinals -78.43% NRFI Probability Score - 8-2 NRFI in last 10 games
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Twitter/X: @BettorDaysAhead