Best MLB NRFI/YRFI June 11: Why You Should Target Wheeler vs. Crawford (Philadelphia vs Boston)
By Mark Wallis
Happy Tuesday to you all! I am so excited to have a full schedule of baseball for today's enjoyment. As the pitches start to be thrown tonight, I will be focusing on what I am calling the "Patriots Series" taking place in Boston.
Is there a more "American Patriotic" themed game taking place than when the Philadelphia Phillies and the Boston Red Sox meet? I don't think so!
Not only is it the Liberty Bell vs. Tea Party, but the game that these cities are engaging in is literally called "American's Pastime."
Makes you want to throw a few dogs on the grill, grab a cold beverage, and enjoy the feeling of American pride as you take in a baseball game.
Ok, let's be honest -- as you take in the first six OUTS of a baseball game! After all, you are reading a No Run/ Yes Run First Inning article for a reason!
MLB Best NRFI/YRFI Bets For Today
All odds listed are via Caesars Sportbook.
Philadelphia Phillies vs Boston Red Sox NRFI -135
Kutter Crawford will take the mound tonight when the Red Sox start the top half of the first inning. Crawford has been a consistent NRFI pitcher having a 11-2 record overall and a 6-1 NRFI record at home this season. Crawford has been difficult for opposing teams to figure out early on in his starts, as he has held the opposition bats to a .222 Batting Ave in the first inning.
Philadelphia is 7-3 NRFI in their last 10 games and are 65.52% NRFI on the road this season.
The Phillies will have Zack Wheeler pitching in the bottom half of the first inning. Wheeler has been a perfect NRFI this season going 13-0 overall, which includes five road starts.
Taking a look at Wheeler's metrics, and it is easy to understand why he has been so efficient in the first inning this season. He has an opponents batting average of .059 in the first inning and has only allowed one first inning hit in his five road starts. Boston is 8-2 NRFI in their last 10 games and are 65.62% NRFI at home this season.
Cleveland Guardians vs Cincinnati Reds NRFI -120
Cincinnati's Brent Suter will be making his second start at home against the Guardians tonight.
Suter has done well in the first inning in his starts so far, going 2-0 NRFI overall. He has held the opposing bats to a mediocre .250 batting average in the first inning. He will be facing a Guardians team that is only batting .181 in the first inning and are 77.14% NRFI on the road this season.
Tristan McKenzie will get the start for the Guardians in the bottom half of the inning. McKenzie is 8-4 NRFI overall this season, however that record is a perfect 4-0 on the road.
He has held the opposing teams to a .143 Batting Average, while racking up six strikeouts in those 4 road first innings. The Reds team that he will be throwing to tonight is batting .174 in the first inning this season when playing at home and are 74.29% NRFI at home on the season.
Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Dodgers NRFI -105
In the late game tonight we will be treated to seeing two pitchers that are collectively 17-4 NRFI on the year. However, that record improves to 8-1 when we look at just the split stats.
James Paxton will start the game for LA, and he is a perfect 4-0 NRFI at home this season and 9-2 NRFI overall. The Rangers will have to contend with Paxton's very efficient OPP Batting Average in the first inning of .077 and a first inning WHIP of 1.00.
The Dodgers will face Texas starting pitcher Dane Dunning in the bottom half of the inning. Dunning is 8-2 NRFI overall and 4-1 NRFI on the road this season. In his five road starts, he has faced a total of 16 batters in the first inning, meaning that in only one start did he face more than three batters. That efficiency has led to some incredible first inning stats for Dunning- .174 OPP wOBA, .067 OPP BA, and a .40 first inning WHIP.
There are also books that will allow you to target specific teams in the first inning. So I will include a three-team parlay that can be put together at BetMGM or on DraftKings. Listed next to the teams are the TEAM SPECIFIC probability scores that my model gives for the likelihood of NRFI, and the team's Last 10 game NRFI record.
3- Team No Run First Inning Parlay +103
CWS White Sox 78.12% NRFI Probability Score 7-3 NRFI in last 10 games
STL Cardinals 79.31% NRFI Probability Score 6-4 NRFI in last 10 games
ATL Braves 87.50% NRFI Probability Score 7-3 NRFI in last 10 games
For a complete daily NRFI/YRFI team listing, be sure to follow me on Twitter!
Twitter/X: @BettorDaysAhead
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.