Best MLB NRFI/YRFI June 16: Targeting Lively vs. Berrios for a Father's Day NRFI play!
By Mark Wallis
Happy Sunday to you, and a great big HAPPY FATHER'S DAY to all you fathers!
May your day be relaxed, stress-free, and filled with family. And hopefully, you will have the time to take in a couple of first innings on today's 16 game MLB slate.
Thanks to a weather issue, we now have 16 games to take in today with a doubleheader being played in Minnesota between the Twins and the Oakland Athletics. That is a lot of baseball to scour, but I believe I have found the games that are worthy of your first inning wagers!
MLB Best NRFI/YRFI Bets For Today
All odds listed are via Caesars Sportbook.
Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals NRFI -120
Washington was able to get three hits in the bottom of the first inning yesterday, and very quickly trashed our NRFI play.
I don't see lightning striking twice in the Nationals Park today. Here's why: Pitching for the Nationals will be Mitchell Parker. Parker is 8-3 NRFI on the season and a perfect 4-0 at home. The Marlins are 8-2 NRFI in their last 10 games and 81.82% NRFI on the road this season.
The Marlins will also be facing a pitcher in Parker that has a .083 OPP First Inning Batting Ave, and a 0.25 first inning WHIP.
Miami will have Jesus Luzardo on the mound today to start the bottom half of the inning. Luzardo is 10-1 NRFI on the season and 3-1 on the road.
His OPP First Inning BA of .154 and a first inning WHIP of 0.75 help to explain Luzardo's sucess in the first inning. He will take those numbers to the hill against a Nationals team that is 8-2 NRFI in their last 10 games and 84.37% NRFI at home this season.
The Nationals have only registered seven first inning hits when playing at home over the last 30 days- three of those came yesterday! The Nationals have a .152 first inning batting average over the same span of time.
Cleveland Guardians vs Toronto Blue Jays NRFI -125
Jose Berrios will throw the first pitch in the game today as the Blue Jays play the Guardians. Berrios has been a excellent NRFI at home this year for the Jays compiling a 6-0 NRFI record at home, he is 10-4 NRFI overall this season.
He will be facing a Guardian team that is 8-2 NRFI in their last 10 games and are 79.49% NRFI on the road this season. Berrios has a .150 OPP First Inning BA and a 0.83 first inning WHIP.
Ben Lively will be pitching for the Guardians. Lively has a 5-1 NRFI record on the road this year and is 9-1 NRFI overall. His success in the first inning is evident in the the .143 OPP First Inning BA and his 0.83 first inning WHIP that also matches Berrios'.
Toronto has struggled to hit the ball in the first inning at home, compiling a a .082 BA over the last 30 days. The Jays are also 9-1 NRFI in their last 10 games and are 87.88% NRFI at home this season.
There are also books that will allow you to target specific teams in the first inning. So I will include a three-team parlay that can be put together at BetMGM or on DraftKings. Listed next to the teams are the TEAM SPECIFIC probability scores that my model gives for the likelihood of NRFI, and the team's Last 10 game NRFI record.
3- Team No Run First Inning Parlay +123
- STL Cardinals- 78.38% NRFI Probability Score - 9-1 NRFI in last 10 games
- KC Royals - 75.76% NRFI Probability Score - 8-2 NRFI in last 10 games
- BOS Red Sox - 64.86% NRFI Probability Score - 7-3 NRFI in last 10 games
For a complete daily NRFI/YRFI team listing, be sure to follow me on Twitter!
Twitter/X: @BettorDaysAhead
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.