Best MLB NRFI/YRFI (Nathan Eovaldi's NRFI Prowess Worth Betting Monday)
By Mark Wallis
Happy Monday to you all! We have a fairly light MLB schedule to go through today, but that does not mean it will lack for any drama!
We saw a big upswing in first inning runs over the weekend. The YRFI beating out NRFI by a measure of 19-11, the YRFI went 10-5 yesterday.
The big question of the day is, will Toronto build upon its streak of 23 straight games without a run in the first inning, or will the Blue Jays be able to get to Baltimore pitcher Grayson Rodriguez, who is 1-3 NRFI on the road and just 5-4 NRFI overall this season.
According to my model, this is the best chance that the Blue Jays have had in several days to end the streak- which is why this is ALMOST a stay away from me, more on that shortly.
MLB Best NRFI/YRFI Bets For Today
All odds listed are via Caesars Sportbook.
Detroit Tigers vs Texas Rangers NRFI (-135)
Nathan Eovaldi and the Texas Rangers welcome the Detroit Tigers for the beginning of a three-game series in Arlington. Eovald will bring his 4-1 NRFI at home and 6-2 NRFI overall records to the mound to start the game.
Detroit will have Tarik Skubal on the mound in the bottom half of the inning. Skubal is 4-1 NRFI on the road this season and is 8-3 NRFI overall. The Rangers team he will be facing is 7-3 NRFI in their last 10 games and are 81.48% NRFI at home this season.
Milwaukee Brewers vs Philadelphia Phillies NRFI (-120)
Philadelphia's starting pitcher, Zack Wheeler, has a perfect NRFI this season! He is 12-0 NRFI overall including his 7-0 at home. He will be tasked with quieting the bats of a Brewers team that is 9-1 NRFI in their last 10 games and are 70.97% NRFI on the road this season.
Milwaukee will counter with Bryse Wilson, who is 6-1 NRFI overall and 3-0 NRFI on the road this season. The Phillies team that he wil pitch to in the bottom half of the inning are 7-3 NRFI on the year and are coming off a 5-4 10-inning loss to San Francisco last night.
St. Louis Cardinals vs Houston Astros NRFI (-115)
The Cardinals played the late game last night against Philadelphia and came out with a 5-4 win in a game that went 10 innings. They now have to face Justin Verlander and the Houston Astros to open up a three game series in Houston. Verlander is 6-2 NRFI overall this season and 2-0 NRFI at home. The Cardinals are 8-2 NRFi in their last 10 games and are 81.25% NRFI on the road this season.
The Astros will face Kyle Gibson when they come to the plate in their half of the inning. While Gibson is 7-4 NRFI overall this season, he is 4-1 NRFI on the road. The Astros are are 9-1 NRFI in their last 10 games and are 65.62% NRFI at home this year.
There are also books that will allow you to target specific teams in the first inning. So I will include a three-team parlay that can be put together atBetMGMor onDraftKings. Listed next to the teams are the TEAM SPECIFIC probability scores that my model gives for the likelihood of NRFI, and the team's Last 10 game NRFI record.
I said earlier that the Baltimore vs Toronto game was an "Almost" stay away for me, well that is because I am targeting Baltimore in this spot! The Orioles have scored in the first inning just ONCE while playing on the road this year. So, while I don't have any confidence in the Rodriquez pitching matchup- I can still target the Orioles today!
3 Team NRFI parlay: STL Cardinals, SF Giants, BAL Orioles NRFI +102
St. Louis Cardinals 81.30% probability score 8-2 NRFI L10
San Francisco Giants 82.76% probability score 10-0 NRFI L10
Baltimore Orioles 95.83% probability score 7-3 NRFI L10
For a complete daily NRFI/YRFI team listing, be sure to follow me on Twitter!
Twitter/X: @BettorDaysAhead
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.