Last night we got to enjoy the National League with the four American League teams getting the night off and now it flips. The ALDS is back on after a scheduling quirk that delayed Game 2. That makes it the perfect situation for a parlay, because we only have two games to focus on and there is great value in the ALDS tonight.
I’ve put together a parlay that I feel great about and in my opinion, you’d be a fool not to ride with me on this.
Best MLB Parlay Picks Today
Mariners (+136) vs. Astros
Luis Castillo (8-6, 2.99 ERA) is on the mound today for Seattle against Framber Valdez (17-6, 2.82 ERA) for Houston.
Valdez might have a slightly lower ERA and a few more wins, but I like Castillo in this matchup. If we have learned anything about Castillo in his time in Seattle, it is that he loves pitching in big games.
Against Toronto to open the Wild Card round, he went 7.1 scoreless with five strikeouts and no walks. He did allow six hits, but he was dominant. We saw that all second half, his worst outings as a Mariner came against Oakland and Kansas City.
In the five games he pitched against playoff teams, he only gave up four runs in 32.2 innings with 38 strikeouts. If you include his start in Game 1 of the Wild Card that’s four runs in 40 innings.
Castillo gets up for big games and that’s what we are going to back today. Plus, Valdez has seen Seattle twice and has a 3.95 ERA against their lineup. Still a pretty solid number, but over a full run worse than his year long ERA.
Luis Castillo Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+110)
This is the exact same case I just made, Castillo gets up for big games and pitches better against good teams. You could see it in Toronto and it’ll show up in Houston.
Houston doesn’t strike out a lot, but Castillo has a 76th percentile strikeout rate and a 67% whiff rate. Not outstanding, but since coming to Seattle, he has made five starts against playoff teams and only went under this total one time.
Guardians vs. Yankees (-142)
The Guardians have been a scrappy bunch, and I would love to take them to win a game in the Bronx. The weather does not look great there, so we might not even get this game tonight, but whenever it is played, if Nestor Cortes Jr. is on the mound, that is a problem for Cleveland.
The Guardians had the 28th best OPS against left-handed pitching in the MLB and despite their minor success against Shane McClanahan in the Wild Card, I am trusting 162 games worth of data.
They only got two runs over seven innings against McClanahan, so it’s not like they dominated, Tampa just wasn’t able to get anything off Shane Bieber. That certainly could happen again, but New York’s lineup is a big step up in weight class from the Rays.
Parlay Odds: +745
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Games odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.