Best MLB Parlay Picks Today (Cardinals, Astros and and Under Deliver on Saturday)
By Ben Heisler
I'm on MLB Parlay duty this Saturday evening for BetSided, and while there are a few eye-opening underdogs that I'm paying attention to tonight, including the Miami Marlins as an absurd +260 underdog vs. the L.A. Dodgers, I don't feel comfortable throwing it into a parlay where we need a little more reliability.
Instead, I'm focusing on two favorites, one of them being a heavily juiced prop bet, while grabbing a shorter underdog that's thrived in these spots all season.
All odds are via FanDuel Sportsbook, and today's 3-leg parlay would pay out at +503 odds. Put down $25, and you win $125.93 if it hits. Let's eat!
Best MLB Parlay Picks Today (+503 Odds)
- Astros ML +144 at Braves
- HOU @ ATL: Spencer Strider UNDER 7.5 Strikeouts (-154)
- Cardinals -146 at Diamondbacks
Houston Astros +144 at Atlanta Braves
As you'll see a little further down, I'm buying Houston's patient and tough offense to handle the magnificent stuff of Strider.
His opponent for Houston, right-hander Cristian Javier has been nearly as dominant, just doesn't have the run support to show for it. Despite his 7-8 record, he's averaging 11.68 strikeouts per nine innings, a 2.96 ERA and an expected ERA (xERA) of 2.63.
I don't think the Braves should be underdogs at home, per se, but -166 favorites facing a very solid pitcher in Javier feels far too high.
Spencer Strider UNDER 7.5 Strikeouts (-154) - Braves vs. Astros
I referenced my fade of Strider in greater detail in our BetSided MLB Best Prop Bets article here, but 7.5 is a massive number against the second-best strikeout team in the Majors.
The right-hander has put up ELITE strikeout numbers, but doesn't go deep enough into games for me to feel supremely confident in Atlanta's ability to shut down an offense that ranks sixth-best in baseball, rarely strikes out, and walks at a top-8 clip in the game.
Houston has a +151 run differential on the season, and rank third in the Big Leagues in weighted-runs-created plus (wRC+). Th
Furthermore, Strider has failed to hit this over in four of his last five games, leading me to think he fares well, but not well enough for this monster number to hit. Especially in a parlay, I don't mind laying this kind of juice.
St. Louis Cardinals -146 at Arizona Diamondbacks
The Cardinals' march towards torching left-handers should continue tonight, as Madison Bumgarner is really going through it over his last several starts.
After entering August with an ERA under 3, Mad Bum was seriously due for regression, and it's come. He's given up four runs or more in his last four starts, including 11 runs in his last 11 innings pitched. The strikeout numbers are starting to climb, but he's not fooling a lot of guys either; giving up 8.5 hits on average in those last four starts while only tossing 23.1 innings in the process.
Oh, and Paul Goldschmidt has flat-out destroyed lefties all season long. The likely NL MVP choice is hitting .438 with a .576 weighted-on-base average (wOBA). Those are Ruthian-type numbers, my friend.
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