We were so, so close to taking down a second massive parlay over the last three days, but the Oakland Athletics forgot how to hit the baseball.
Oh well, onward and upward. Today's cash is going to be more glorious, anyway. Lesson learned: don't trust little league offenses.
There's an incredible slate today with some of my favorite spots to target and fade. Let's not waste any more time. Using odds from WynnBET Sportsbook, here are my favorite MLB parlay picks of the day:
Best MLB Parlay Picks Today
Cubs -1.5 (+100) vs Nationals
Other than Mike Minor of the Reds, Patrick Corbin is my favorite pitcher to fade in all of MLB. The Washington Nationals are 4-19 in his starts this year with 16 losses coming by multiple runs. His 6.06 expected ERA is the worst among all qualified starters, and Corbin didn't even make it out of the first inning in two of his last three starts.
It's almost cruel how much Corbin is struggling. He's surrendered at least four runs in six consecutive outings, while his MLB Statcast Pitching Profile is a disgrace to humanity:
Meanwhile, Chicago Cubs' lefty Justin Steele has a 1.95 ERA over his last seven starts, including allowing just two runs over six strong innings while striking out nine against these Nationals last week.
Steele had an expected FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) of 0.85 in that start against Washington and posted a 0.74 in his outing prior to that. The guy is on fire.
Although the Cubs struggle against left-handed pitching, this is Patrick Corbin we're talking about. Take the value on the run line as Corbin's disastrous season continues.
Orioles +1.5 (-115) vs Blue Jays
In the Baltimore Orioles' last 25 games as underdogs, they're 21-4 on the run line. That's a downright insane stretch. Although Toronto Blue Jays' starter Alek Manoah is scary, he's struggling of late and just took a loss to these Orioles in his last start.
Manoah has an expected FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) above 4.96 in two of his last three starts and the Blue Jays are just 3-5 in his last eight.
Toronto hasn't covered the run line in nine consecutive games as a favorite, while the Orioles are 7-4 outright in Dean Kremer's previous 11 starts.
I'll keep riding the Baltimore gravy train until the wheels fall off. Trust the Orioles to improve to a league-best 69-32-1 on the run line as underdogs.
Mariners (-165) vs Angels
The Seattle Mariners are 11-1 in their last dozen games as road favorites and Robbie Ray dominated the Los Angeles Angels twice already this season. Here are Ray's stats in those two outings:
- 14 innings pitched
- Two runs allowed
- Eight hits allowed
- Three walks
- 20 strikeouts
Ray has the Angels' number. We're getting tremendous odds on this matchup because Jose Suarez hasn't allowed a run in three straight starts. Two of those outings came against the Athletics though, who have a little league lineup, as we discussed.
Suarez's expected FIP over his last five starts?
- 8/8 @ OAK: 3.16
- 8/2 vs OAK: 4.69
- 7/26 @ KCR: 4.22
- 7/16 vs LAD: 5.12
- 7/10 @ BAL: 7.84
It's time to fade Suarez's good run, as his underlying metrics don't support the box score stats. The Angels are 5-17 in their last 22 games as home underdogs and Seattle will take advantage.
MLB Parlay for August 16, 2022
The "Lessons Learned" Parlay (+501)
- Cubs -1.5 (+100) vs Nationals
- Orioles +1.5 (-115) vs Blue Jays
- Mariners (-165) vs Angels
Bang, bang! Odds of +501 pay out $125.13 on a $25 bet and I love the value we've got in these three matchups.
We get to fade Patrick Corbin and the Angels while backing the Orioles? That sounds like a recipe for success in my eyes. Don't forget to check out the BetSided previews for each game today as you fill out your bet slip at WynnBET, but keep these plays in mind as you do.
Best of luck - let's get after it!
Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.