Best MLB Parlay Picks Today (Trust 3 Short Home Underdogs for a Saturday Payday)

Our guy Joe Summers has had a fantastic run with his top MLB Parlay Picks all season; including hitting on a few big ones throughout the year!

I'll be filling in for "Stanford Joe" today, and am rolling the dice on three short underdogs at home this Saturday, all of which I love to win outright on the moneyline and have written about in detail today at BetSided.

Using the odds over at WynnBET Sportsbook, I'll try to keep the good vibes going for Saturday's action across the Big Leagues.

Best MLB Parlay Picks Today

Cincinnati Reds (-105) vs. Baltimore Orioles

Reds starter Tyler Mahle is due for some positive regression. His ERA of 4.48 on the surface looks iffy, but via to Fangraphs, his expected ERA is actually 3.30; a +1.18 difference in his favor. Mahle actually ranks sixth amongst today's starters in wins-above-replacement, or WAR, and comes in with a solid K/9 of just under 10.

As for Kremer, while the 3.06 ERA looks sparkling, he's been the opposite of Mahle this year: extremely fortunate. His expected ERA is more than two full runs higher at 5.21, all while not missing many bats. The ball has gone where it's needed to go, and in return, Kremer and the Orioles have taken advantage.

With these odds as close as they are, I'll back the pitcher with the far better metrics in Mahle, and hope Cincinnati can hang on.

Pittsburgh Pirates (+137) vs. Philadelphia Phillies

While BetSided writer and Pittsburgh native and fan Josh Yourish disagrees with my backing of the Buccos at home, I'll back what I've seen from starter Mitch Keller over his last several starts.

Since the start of July, Keller has a 2.88 ERA in four starts; going 6, 7, 6, and 6 innings in all four starts. Two of them came against very good offenses as well; holding the Yankees to four earned runs and seven strikeouts in six, while also giving up just one unearned run on the road at Coors Field in six innings.

Meanwhile, Ranger Suárez goes again for Philadelphia and while he's allowed no earned runs over his last two starts (5 innings pitched in each), he's been way too hot and cold for me to trust definitively.

Yourish points out that even though Keller's been great, Pittsburgh is just 1-2 in his last three. Let's make it 2-2 in his last four tonight.

Washington Nationals (+130) vs. St. Louis Cardinals

Dakota Hudson has had a rough year in St. Louis even though the stats don't look all that awful. He comes in with a 4.10 ERA, but his expected ERA over at Fangraphs is significantly higher at 5.45; implying he's been the beneficiary of good luck this year.

Hudson also can't generate any swings-and-misses vs. opponents. His strikeouts per nine are under 5, while his walk rate has soared to just under 4 per nine.

Tonight's original starter, Erick Fedde hasn't been much better for the Nationals with a 4.95 ERA and expected ERA just over 5. The good news is, Washington just replaced him with Paolo Espino, who hasn't allowed more than three earned runs in his starts since July 5. The Cardinals have yet to see him this season, which offers a slight advantage to the pitcher.

MLB Parlay for Saturday, July 30, 2022

The "Dog Days of Summer" Parlay (+964)

• Reds -105
• Pirates +137
• Nationals +130

A $25 bet on this bad boy would net back $241.06! Good luck!

Follow all of Ben's betting plays in real-time HERE!