Best MLB Prop Bets for Blue Jays vs. Royals: Yusei Kikuchi Struggles Early
Expect both starting pitchers to have short leashes in this close matchup.
Tonight in MLB action, the Toronto Blue Jays head to Kauffman Stadium to begin a four-game series against the Kansas City Royals.
With both teams evenly matched, the betting markets indicate a tight contest, labelling the game a pick'em on the moneyline.
Given the competitive nature anticapted for this mathcup, both starting pitchers are expected to be on short leashes, suggesting that any early struggles could lead to early exits.
I have found two spots tonight that play really well into the narrative, and look confident to smack. Let's break down my best bets for Blue Jays vs. Royals and win some money!
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Best Prop Bets for Blue Jays vs. Royals
- Yusei Kikuchi UNDER 16.5 Pitching Outs
- Brady Singer UNDER 17.5 Pitching Outs
Yusei Kikuchi UNDER 16.5 Pitching Outs
The simple thing is, the Royals don’t allow pitchers to get deep into games with them. They are more than capable of limiting pitcher duration, and do so effectively, with only two of the last 10 starting pitchers facing off against them, having managed to complete at least six innings.
The Royal’s specific performances against left-handed pitchers this season only further points to potential difficulties for Kikuchi. The team has faced four left-handed starters this season, among whom only Cole Irvin surpassed the 6-inning mark - and that came during his second encounter with the team within the month, benefiting from adjustments made after his initial outing.
Kikuchi’s own track record this season reinforces this trend. He has remained under 16.5 outs in eight of his last 10 starts, and his performance when allowing two or more runs is particularly telling - he has failed to exceed 16.5 outs in 35 out of 36 such games from 2022 to 2024.
Given his current line at 5.5 hits allowed tonight, it’s reasonable to expect the Royals to produce some volume and score against him, which historically correlates with shorter outings.
Considering the historical trends and Kikuchi’s struggles, I’m very confident in my prediction that the Royals will expose him early, and he won’t go over this line tonight.
Brady Singer UNDER 17.5 Pitching Outs
This play may scare a lot of people, as Singer has been quite strong to start the season. The truth is, I don’t see a way he racks up 18 outs today against the Jays, and his recent performances add significant weight to this prediction.
Over his last four games, although he’s performed well, Singer recorded 21, 19, and notably, 15 outs twice. This decreasing trend suggests a potential struggle to maintain deep outings, a vital factor in achieving the over in outs.
The Blue Jays are particularly adept at extending at-bats, ranking fifth in the majors in pitches seen per plate appearance. This tendency to run up the pitch count could significantly hinder Singer’s ability to last deeper into the game, as longer at-bats typically lead to earlier exits for starting pitchers due to pitch count limitations.
Historical data from recent matchups further strengthens the case for Singer to fall short of the line. In the past 17 games against the Blue Jays, 12 starting pitchers have gone under this line, indicating a consistent pattern where Toronto’s lineup challenges opposing starters effectively.
Additionally, in his only outing against the Blue Jays last season, Singer only managed to pitch five innings, falling well short of the 17.5 outs mark.
Singer has gone under this line in back-to-back starts, and I don’t see him getting back on track tonight against a gritty Blue Jays lineup. Take the under!