Best MLB Prop Bets for Cubs vs. Red Sox: Imanaga and Crawford Put on a Pitching Masterclass
Tonight in MLB action, the Boston Red Sox welcome the Chicago Cubs to Fenway Park for the opening game of their series, setting the stage for what promises to be a low-scoring affair dominated by pitching excellence.
As both teams bring their top arms to be the bump, fans and bettors alike can anticipate a closely-contested battle where pitchers control the game, and runs are at a premium.
This matchup showcases some of the finest pitching talents in the league, and with that in mind, I have found three spots that I absolutely love tonight, including my first NRFI play of the year.
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Let's break down my best bets on Friday night, and win some money!
Best Prop Bets for Cubs vs. Red Sox:
- Shota Imanaga OVER 6.5 Strikeouts
- Kutter Crawford OVER 5.5 Strikeouts
- UNDER 0.5 1st Inning Runs
Shota Imanaga OVER 6.5 Strikeouts
I love this spot for Imanaga tonight, as we get him at a promising buy-low spot. Although his strikeout numbers have dipped since his MLB debut, where he notched nine strikeouts versus the Colorado Rockies, he now faces a Red Sox lineup that has notably struggled against left-handed pitchers, currently ranking last in strikeout percentage, with a high rate of 30%.
Additionally, the projected lineup for the Red Sox tonight includes seven players each with a projected season strikeout rate of over 27% against left-handed pitchers, further increasing the likelihood of strikeouts.
Historical performance from other pitchers against this lineup also suggests a favorable outcome for Imanaga. Both Martin Perez and Alex Wood, pitchers who have struggled this season, recently recorded seven strikeouts in outings of five or fewer innings against this same Red Sox team.
Imanaga may have dropped off a little bit since his debut, but tonight looks like the perfect bounce-back opportunity for him against a struggling opponent. Some books have this line at 5.5, so you can play that for a safer bet with less payout, but I personally will be playing it at 6.5, as I think Imanaga is in a prime position tonight, and fully expect him to achieve at least seven strikeouts in this matchup.
Kutter Crawford OVER 5.5 Strikeouts
Crawford has been dominant to start the season, clearing this line in four of his first five starts, as well as eight of his last ten dating back to last season. He boasts a high strikeout percentage of 27.3% this season, which is indicative of his abilities to effectively retire batters.
Significantly enhancing Crawford’s prospects tonight is his remarkable 46% strikeout rate against the Cubs hitters over his career. This specific dominance against the Chicago batters highlights his ability to exploit their weaknesses. The Cubs themselves have been particularly prone to strikeouts lately, especially against right-handed pitchers, having recorded the third-highest strikeout rate in the MLB in their last three games.
Moreover, the projected Cubs lineup for tonight shows an average strikeout rate of about 26% against right-handed pitching. This statistic not only underscores the Cubs’ tendency to strike out, but also aligns well with Crawford’s demonstrated capability to exploit this weakness.
Given these factors - his personal track record against the Cubs and their recent struggles with strikeouts - I believe Crawford will soar over this line tonight with ease, continuing to add on to what is already a dominant season performance thus far.
UNDER 0.5 1st Inning Runs
NRFI nation let’s ride! This will officially be my first No Run First Inning (NRFI) play of the season and I love this spot.
Crawford has demonstrated remarkable effectiveness in the first inning this season, as evidenced by his 4-1 NRFI record this season. Furthermore, his league-leading ERA of 0.66 through 27.1 innings, strongly supports his ability to prevent early runs. Additionally, the Cubs have struggled significantly to score in the first inning on the road, remaining scoreless in 10 out of 12 games this year.
On the opposing side, Imanaga has been equally formidable, boasting a 0.84 ERA and a 0.75 WHIP across 21.1 innings. His perfect 4-0 record on NRFI’s this season further underscores his prowess in keeping the scoreline at zero in the opening frame.
Given the abilities of both starting pitchers, along with the fact that the game total is set at a relatively low eight runs, we can all expect this game to be low-scoring.
I’m more than ready to sweat out the most exciting play in baseball tonight, so let’s start the season off on a high, and cash our first NRFI of the year!