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Best MLB Prop Bets for Blue Jays vs. Orioles: Berrios Brings the Heat on Monday Night

Expect a strikeout showdown in tonight's AL East matchup.

By Calum Morrison

Oct 4, 2023; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Jose Berrios (17)
Oct 4, 2023; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Jose Berrios (17) / Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports
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Tonight in MLB action, the Toronto Blue Jays are set to visit Oriole Park at Camden Yards, opening a pivotal three-game series agains their inter-divisional rivals, the Baltimore Orioles.

Positioned at opposite ends of the division spectrum, the Blue Jays will aim to claw their way up from the bottom, while the Orioles look to bolster their lead at the summit.

With both teams bringing their competitive edge to the mound, expect a showcase of pitching prowess as the starters from each side are anticipated to rack up significant strikeout totals in the opening game of what promises to be a gripping series.

I have found my two best bets for tonight's action, so let's break them down, and win some money!

Best Prop Bets for Blue Jays vs. Orioles:

  • Jose Berrios OVER 4.5 Strikeouts
  • Corbin Burnes OVER 5.5 Strikeouts

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Jose Berrios OVER 4.5 Strikeouts

This season, Berrios has surpassed this line in five out of eight starts, notably registering six or more strikeouts in each of those games. The three games in which he did not achieve this were two games against the Kansas City Royals, who strike out the second fewest, and against the Houston Astros, who strike out the fewest, meaning they are not reflective of his general performance this season. 

Importantly, Berrios has shown a particular prowess against left-handed hitters, boasting a 27.5% strikeout rate against them this season. This is particularly relevant given that the Orioles are likely to field a lineup heavy with lefties. 

I expect Berrios to pitch at least five innings, meaning he needs just one strikeout per inning, and that is entirely feasible for a pitcher of his capabilities.

Considering his consistent performance against teams not ranked in the bottom two for strikeouts, and given that the Orioles rank in the middle pack regarding strikeout rate, Berrios should have no issue getting it done on the bump tonight. 

Corbin Burnes OVER 5.5 Strikeouts

For our second play, we are targeting the opposing pitcher taking the mound. Burnes, as is expected, has demonstrated a strong ability to strike out right-handed hitters this season, sporting a notable 30% strikeout rate against them. This is particularly relevant given that the Blue Jays’ lineup is expected to feature seven right-handed hitters tonight, aligning well with Burnes’ strengths.

Furthermore, the Blue Jays have shown a tendency to strike out more frequently against right-handed pitchers compared to lefties, which enhances the likelihood of Burnes achieving high strikeout numbers tonight. 

Burnes has also been in excellent form recently, surpassing this line in his last three starts. His performance at home has been particularly impressive, with an average of 9.73 strikeouts per nine innings, indicating that he thrives in his home ballpack environment. 

Given his recent form and the composition of the Blue Jays’ lineup, Burnes looks poised to continue his strikeout streak tonight, and I expect him to get it done nice and early, and cash us out to start the week.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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