Best MLB Prop Bets for Giants vs. Red Sox: Harrison Dominates on Thursday Afternoon
The San Francisco Giants are gearing up for an exciting showdown at Fenway Park, as they face off against the Boston Red Sox in the final game of their series this afternoon in MLB action.
After suffering defeats in the first two games, with the Red Sox clinching a 4-0 win in the opener and a 6-2 victory yesterday, the Giants look determined to avoid a sweep.
All eyes are on Giants' ace Kyle Harrison, who is expected to deliver another standout performance today and get their side back on track.
Additionally, the Red Sox's Jarren Duran is a player to watch, coming into the game with a hot bat, and looking to make a significant impact.
I've found my two best bets for today's action, so let's break them down, and win some money!
Best Prop Bets for Giants vs. Red Sox:
- Kyle Harrison OVER 14.5 Pitcher Outs
- Jarren Duran OVER 1.5 Total Bases
Kyle Harrison OVER 14.5 Pitcher Outs
Harrison has surpassed this line in five of his six starts this season, with his only miss coming against the Arizona Diamondbacks, a team that is notably strong against left-handed pitchers. This trend suggests that his struggles are more about the matchup than his overall capability.
Harrison’s ability to consistently throw strikes is another crucial factor. With 62% of his first pitches being strikes and an overall in-zone percentage of 55.1%, he’s demonstrating control that should help him work deep into the game.
His recent performances also add to my optimism. Coming off his best start of the season - a six-inning shutout against the Pittsburgh Pirates - his confidence and rhythm should be high. Additionally, his pitch count has been consistently in the 85-90 range, and given that he’s been effective, I expect him to exceed this range tonight.
Match-up-wise, while the Red Sox are known for drawing walks, Harrison’s elite control, demonstrated by allowing one or fewer walks in five of six starts, should help keep his pitch count low, allowing him to pitch longer into the game. Moreover, the timing of the game - a 1:35 PM start on a getaway day - likely means the Red Sox will rest some regular players, potentially weakening their lineup against him.
Finally, the strategic context within the Giants lineup supports a longer outing from him. San Francisco used four relievers in a bullpen game yesterday, which would naturally disincline them from pulling him early unless he’s struggling.
Combining Harrison’s recent form with a league-average Red Sox lineup, I like this spot for him tonight. All we need is five innings from him, so let’s cash out on this beautiful Thursday afternoon!
Jarren Duran OVER 1.5 Total Bases
Duran has had one of the hottest bats in the league of late, and he only becomes more effective playing in front of the home crowd at Fenway Park. At home, he has surpassed this total baseline in 10 out of 15 games this season, suggesting an enhanced level of comfort and success at Fenway, that could play a significant role in tonight’s outcome.
His recent track record against the Giants further supports this prediction, having hit this line in each of his last four games against them. Additionally, Duran’s impressive .345 batting average against left-handed pitchers in 2024, indicates that he’s well equipped to handle Harrison starting on the bump, and whatever left-handed options the Giants choose to follow him up with today.
Moreover, Duran’s speed and athleticism are crucial factors. These attributes not only enhance his ability to get on base, but also significantly increase his chances of turning singles into doubles, or even stretching doubles into triples. This ability to convert hits into extra bases maximizes his potential to accumulate total bases quickly within a game.
I’m trusting the hot bat in Duran tonight, and confident he gets it done for us nice and early!
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.