Best MLB Prop Bets for Mariners vs. Astros: Blanco Primed for Big Start, Kirby Set to Struggle
Tonight in MLB action, the Seattle Mariners face off against the Houston Astros at Minute Maid Park, in what promises to be an intriguing opening to their three-game series.
This matchup features a striking contrast between the starting pitchers, each bringing a different dynamic to the mound.
On one side, Ronel Blanco is expected to unleash a strikeout frenzy, capitalizing on the Mariners' current struggles at the plate.
On the other side, George Kirby might find it tough to put together a quality start, as he confronts an Astros lineup known for its effectiveness in putting the ball in play.
As these teams prepare to clash, this tale of two cities and their pitchers creates some valuable betting spots in this series opener, and I have found my two best bets for the action.
Let's break them down and win some money!
Best Prop Bets for Mariners vs Astros
- Ronel Blanco OVER 6.5 Strikeouts
- George Kirby UNDER 5.5 Strikeouts
Ronel Blanco OVER 6.5 Strikeouts
This play isn’t so much about Blanco personally, but the lineup he gets across from him tonight. The Mariners’ lineup features six of nine hitters with a strikeout rate over 30% against right-handed pitchers this season, indicating a susceptibility that Blanco can exploit. Additionally, Seattle’s recent form has been particularly poor, ranking third highest in strikeouts against right-handers over the last 15 days.
Historical trends also support Blanco’s potential success tonight, as seven of the last ten right-handed pitchers facing Seattle have surpassed their strikeout lines, with three exceeding by a whole or more strikeouts.
Moreover, due to heavy bullpen usage by Houston in the past two days, sending out an alarming five relief pitchers, Blanco is likely to be granted a longer leash tonight, allowing him more innings to secure strikeouts.
Blanco has had a strong start to the season as well, posting a 3-0 record, with an impressive 1.65 ERA and 30 strikeouts over five starts, so I have full confidence in him tonight. Almost more importantly though, I have confidence that the Mariners lineup he’s up against will continue their struggling ways at the plate. These factors collectively should allow Blanco to cash this line with ease and cash us out tonight.
George Kirby UNDER 5.5 Strikeouts
On the bump tonight for the Mariners is Kirby, and I see his outing going completely different from Blanco.
The Astros may not be the hottest team in baseball, but they have been notably difficult to strike out recently, allowing the second-fewest strikeouts per game to right-handed pitchers over the last two weeks. Kirby’s own recent history against Houston aligns with this trend; as he has averaged five strikeouts against them in his career, going under this line in two of three starts.
Further examining Kirby’s performance in away games reveals additional concerns; he has failed to exceed this strikeout threshold in 12 of his last 30 away games, highlighting a broader pattern of struggles on the road. This year’s Astros lineup compounds the challenge for Kirby, as six of Houston’s nine hitters are batting over .275 this season, indicating they’re not only hard to strike out, but also frequently make good contact.
Moreover, a significant historical pattern this season shows that the last 11 of 12 right-handed pitchers facing Houston have stayed under this strikeout line, underscoring the team’s proficiency in limiting strikeouts. Additionally, the low strikeout percentage among Houston hitters - seven out of eight under 19%, with some as low as 12% - further diminish the likelihood of Kirby surpassing this line tonight.
Kirby throws a ton of strikes, but Houston ranks first in terms of contact and fourth in swing rate over the last 14 days. They may not be getting on base too much tonight, but they definitely won’t be striking out, and I have full confidence that Kirby won’t have an answer for their effectiveness in protecting the zone.