Best MLB Prop Bets for Marlins vs. Braves: Lopez Shines and Sanchez Struggles on Wednesday Night
Expect Reynaldo to continue his form as one of the best pitchers in the league.
The Miami Marlins are set to face the Atlanta Braves in MLB action at Truist Park on Wednesday night, in what promises to be a climactic finale to their three-game series.
With the Marlins yet to cross home plate in the series, the Braves are on the brink of completing a dominant sweep.
Reynaldo Lopez, who has been in stellar form, looks to extend his run of excellence for the Braves.
On the other hand, Sixto Sanchez will take the mound for the Marlins amidst struggles, aiming to turn his fortunes around against a formidable Braves lineup.
This game sets the stage for an intriguing showdown under the lights in Atlanta, and I've found my two best bets for the action. Let's break them down and win some money!
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Best Prop Bets for Marlins vs. Braves
- Reynaldo Lopez OVER 15.5 Pitcher Outs
- Sixto Sanchez UNDER 2.5 Strikeouts
Reynaldo Lopez OVER 15.5 Pitcher Outs
It’s weird to say, but Reynaldo Lopez has been one of the best pitchers in the league this season, and I truly have no idea how he did it. His pitching excellence is highlighted by his league-leading ERA of 0.50, and the mere one run he has allowed over the 18 innings he has pitched, meaning he has had two scoreless games already this season.
In comparison to his line tonight, Lopez has consistently surpassed this mark, achieving 18 outs in all three of his starts this season. Importantly, his success isn’t limited to weaker teams; he has faced robust lineups, including the Houston Astros, who have the seventh-best wRC+ against right-handed pitchers this year, and the middle-ranking New York Mets. These performances underscore his ability to handle stronger offenses, enhancing his prospects against a less formidable Marlins lineup.
The Marlins present a favorable matchup tonight, as they have struggled significantly against right-handers this year, ranking sixth worst in both OPS and wRC+. Their difficulty in generating hits and walks is likely to allow Lopez to extend his innings without exhausting his pitch count.
While there may be some concern about the bullpen’s usage, after Max Fried’s complete game against the Marlins yesterday, Lopez’s form and the Marlins’ offensive woes should be able to get him at least over this line before he finds some relief.
This is a pretty straightforward play. The Marlins are bad, like really bad, and today they face one of the hottest and most consistent pitchers in baseball. I don’t see a way Lopez won’t clear this line, so I’m trusting him to get it done on Wednesday night.
Sixto Sanchez UNDER 2.5 Strikeouts
This play may seem risky, as most would naturally assume an MLB pitcher should be able to rack up at least three strikeouts in a start, but that isn’t the case for Sanchez tonight. Sanchez, who initially impressed during the 2020 COVID-shortened season with an upper 90s fastball, has seen a notable decline in velocity and effectiveness, after missing the past three seasons due to various issues. This year, his fastball has averaged 94.4 mph, a significant drop from 98.8 mph in 2020.
Furthermore, even during his peak velocity in 2020, Sanchez did not exhibit high strikeout numbers, registering a strikeout rate in the 34th percentile at 20.9%. This season, his strikeout ability has diminished further, managing only three strikeouts among the 34 batters he has faced. Additionally, his chase rate has also drastically reduced from 35.3% in 2020 to just 21.5% in 2024, suggesting batters are less tempted by his pitches outside the strike zone.
Sanchez is also making his first start of the season after transitioning from the bullpen over the last four weeks, and he has not thrown more than 32 pitches in any appearance this year. I expect him to pitch a maximum of three innings today, likely in the range of 45-60 pitches, which limits his opportunities to accumulate strikeouts. Combined with the Braves’ slightly below-average strikeout rate of 21.2% this season, which places them as the 11th lowest in the league, the conditions are not favorable for Sanchez to exceed this line.
Based on what we’ve seen this season, I am more than happy to take my chances that Sanchez doesn’t strike out three or more hitters tonight. I personally am going to play this line at 2.5 because I love the value, but some books have it at 3.5, and I would still play it there, just for a little less payout. Whatever line you play it at, Sanchez is going to struggle tonight, and I think he cashes us all out with another sub-par performance.