Best MLB Prop Bets for Rays vs. Brewers: Freddy Peralta Performs on Tuesday Night
On Tuesday night in MLB action, the Tampa Bay Rays head to American Family Field to face off against the Milwaukee Brewers in the second game of their three-game series.
Fresh off a narrow 1-0 victory last night, the Rays will be looking to capitalize on that momentum, and solidify the series win tonight.
All eyes will be on Brewers ace Freddy Peralta, who will look to give the Brewers a chance in the series with another standout performance.
Meanwhile, keep an eye on the Rays' underrated pitcher, Tyler Alexander, who could also make his own significant impact on the game.
With two formiddable pitchers on the bump, and recent struggles at the bat for both both teams, we're likely in for another tightly contested, low-scoring game, and I've found my two best bets for the action.
Let's break them down, and win some money!
Best Prop Bets for Rays vs Brewers:
- Freddy Peralta OVER 17.5 Pitcher Outs
- Tyler Alexander OVER 3.5 Strikeouts
Freddy Peralta OVER 17.5 Pitcher Outs
Peralta is the ace of the Brewers’ staff, and has demonstrated top form this season, with a stellar 3.18 ERA, and an impressive 93rd percentile strikeout rate through his first five starts. Notably, he has also surpassed this pitcher's outs line in three of those starts, indicating a strong pattern of performance and deep game endurance.
The matchup with the Rays tonight enhances Peralta’s prospects of clearing this line again. Tampa Bay is known for its aggressive batting style, as evidenced by their sixth highest swing percentage (49%) and third highest chase rate (31.5%). This approach results in the Rays drawing walks at the third-lowest rate against right-handed pitchers, like Peralta, which significantly reduces their ability to push his pitch count up via bases on balls.
Additionally, the Rays’ high whiff rate, which ranks fifth in the league, aligns well with Peralta’s 91st percentile whiff rate, suggesting that he can efficiently conclude at-bats, thereby conserving pitches and extending his time on the mound.
Moreover, Peralta has historically performed well against the Rays, going six innings in their only encounter in 2023, and limiting current roster players to a mere .174 batting average. This past success, combined with the Rays’ recent offensive struggles, averaging just 3.1 runs per game over their last 11, provides a favorable backdrop for Peralta to pitch deep into the game.
Lastly, the Brewers’ bullpen has been heavily utilized over the past five days, which adds an organizational incentive for Peralta to shoulder a larger workload tonight, to provide some relief for his bullpen teammates.
He may be a strikeout artist, but I believe Peralta is going to pitch deep into this one, showing everyone why he is the Brewers ace. All we need is six innings, let’s get it done!
Tyler Alexander OVER 3.5 Strikeouts
I know Alexander doesn’t seem like a very good pick, as he’s not generally known as a strikeout pitcher, but the Brewers have shown a particular vulnerability to left-handed pitching this season, striking out at the third-highest rate in the league against lefties, and it’s created a super underrated spot for tonight.
Additionally, Alexander may not be sitting down double digits every night, but he’s been consistent this season. He has managed to record at least four strikeouts in every start this year, meaning he has a 100% cash rate on this line this season.
Furthermore, there’s a compelling case for Alexander’s imminent positive regression. Despite a lower-than-expected strikeout rate of 16.5% this year, he recorded a much higher rate of 25% last season. This discrepancy suggests that Alexander’s current performance might not fully reflect his strikeout capabilities, and adjustment towards his previous form is more than likely.
This may be a risky play, but I personally love it. Alexander has gone over this line in every start this season, and now he gets an advantageous matchup against a strikeout-prone Brewers team.
Until the books show him some respect and adjust his line, I’m going to keep playing this underrated spot, as it’s a proven winner!