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Best MLB Prop Bets Today (Back Big Name Pitchers to go Over Their Projections Monday Night)

By Ben Heisler, Iain MacMillan, Peter Dewey, Reed Wallach

New York Yankees starting pitcher Gerrit Cole has recorded 18 or more outs in his last five starts this season.
New York Yankees starting pitcher Gerrit Cole has recorded 18 or more outs in his last five starts this season. / Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports
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The BetSided crew went 1-1 for MLB prop betting picks on Sunday's slate. Miami Marlins pitcher Sandy Alcantara cruised past his strikeout prop of 5.5, while the Milwaukee Brewers punted on getaway day in their team total over of 4.5 runs in an 8-2 loss to the Washington Nationals.

For Monday's 12-game slate, we're targeting some big-name pitchers to start off the week right in strikeout props, as well as a former Cy Young favorite to clear his recorded outs prop at home.

Best MLB Prop Bets Record to Date

  • MLB Best Prop Bets Record: 65-62-0 

Here are the plays our team is eyeing for tonight’s slate with odds coming from WynnBET and consensus lines. 

Best MLB Prop Bets for Monday, May 23

  • Gerrit Cole OVER 18.5 Outs Recorded (+105)
  • Zack Wheeler OVER 6.5 Strikeouts (-115)
  • Chris Archer OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (-121)
  • Nick Martinez UNDER 4.5 Strikeouts (-115)

Gerrit Cole OVER 18.5 Outs Recorded (+105)

Cole has been dominant over his last five starts, totaling 32.1 innings pitched and allowing just six runs. He's recorded 19 or more outs in four of those five starts, and now he faces an Orioles team that is one of the worst offenses in MLB.

I think Cole also has a longer leash tonight, as the Yankees’ bullpen is a bit thin after playing a doubleheader on Sunday. Cole threw seven innings of two-run ball in his last start against the O’s, and I expect the same tonight. -- Peter Dewey

Zack Wheeler OVER 6.5 Strikeouts (-115)

Wheeler is starting to round into form over his last four starts, allowing three runs over his last 26 innings pitched. He has struck out at least seven batters in all four of those starts and is now set to face the Atlanta Braves, who has the highest K rate in the big leagues dating back to May 1st.

I like Wheeler to show up and keep up his fine form this month with a ho-hum seven-plus strikeout outing. -- Reed Wallach

Chris Archer OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (-121)

Archer gets the start for the Twins today against the Tigers, who have been one of the worst strikeout teams as of late. Over their last three games, they've struck out on 30.6% of their plate appearances, which ranks 29th in all of Major League Baseball.

Archer's strikeout numbers are down this year, dropping to 8.2 per nine innings compared to 9.8 last season, but I expect some positive regression in that area, and it's likely to start today against the lowly Tigers. -- Iain MacMillan

Nick Martinez UNDER 4.5 Strikeouts (-115)

Martinez has been an interesting case-study over his past few outings. He went four innings in both, striking out eight and six batters in each game respectively.

4.5 feels like a low number to climb, but 14 of Martinez's 36 strikeouts this season have come in his last two games. Conversely, Martinez's ground-ball rate is also higher by 5.1% this season, indicating we're likely to see more balls in play relative to the last few weeks.

The Brewers do have the 12th-highest strikeout rate in the Majors, but I don't think it's enough for me to take the over against a top 10 offense. -- Ben Heisler

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