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Best MLB Prop Bets Today (Back Overs on Two Starters Disrespected by Oddsmakers)

By Ben Heisler, Reed Wallach

Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Kyle Gibson is projected for just 4.5 strikeouts. His opponent, the Pirates are second in baseball in strikeouts in 2022
Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Kyle Gibson is projected for just 4.5 strikeouts. His opponent, the Pirates are second in baseball in strikeouts in 2022 / Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
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There's 15 games available to jump on in the baseball prop betting market this Saturday, but with so many options to choose from, how can you narrow down to the best ones of the day?

Good thing is, we've taken care of that for you! After a long look at today's action, we've put together our two favorite MLB prop bets taking place on the mid-afternoon and early evening slate; starting in Boston between the Tampa Bay Rays and Boston Red Sox, followed by a trip to Philadelphia for the Pittsburgh Pirates and Philadelphia Phillies.

Don’t forget, you can always find game-by-game betting plays and previews for each matchup on our MLB Picks page, as well as every team’s list of probable pitchers, weather forecasts, and more.

We also track all of our MLB team prop betting plays HERE.

Best MLB Prop Bets Record to Date

  • MLB Best Prop Bets Record: 206-184-0

Best MLB Prop Bets Today

Rich Hill OVER 3.5 Strikeouts - Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays

Hill is figuratively "over the hill" in his age 42 season, but 3.5 strikeouts for his projection today at home feels like a gross overreaction to his last handful of starts.

Is it a concern when you don't retire one Atlanta Brave hitter via strikeout when they strike out the third-most in baseball? Of course, but Hill bounced back the following week with four punch outs in five innings, and still averages just under seven K's per nine innings.

Today's game at Fenway is in the middle of the afternoon, when the shadows will be favoring the pitchers in the early going. The Rays also strike out the eighth-most in baseball this season as well.

At plus-odds, I don't mind a dice roll with such a low bar for Hill to climb. -- Ben Heisler

Kyle Gibson OVER 4.5 Strikeouts - Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

Gibson isn’t a power pitcher by any means, he gets by on soft contact, and it shows in his strikeout prop numbers. He has a low mark of 4.5 K’s, and he has gone over this number twice since the beginning of August but I’m telling you to take a chance on him because he is facing the hapless Pittsburgh Pirates. 

The Buccos are seventh in K rate this month and are trending in the wrong direction. Gibson is in line for a strong start after struggling against the Mets last time out, struggling to get through five innings. With the drop in competition, I expect him to come out firing on Saturday. – Reed Wallach

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