Best MLB Prop Bets Today (Buy Low on Framber Valdez, Sell High on Corbin Burnes)

The BetSided team is all in on prop bets for the MLB season, sharing our favorite and best prop bet picks each day during the year. 

Best MLB Prop Bets Record to Date

• MLB Best Prop Bets Record: 16-23-0 

Here are the plays our team is eyeing for today's Monday slate with all odds via WynnBET:

Best MLB Prop Bets Today

• Corbin Burnes UNDER 8.5 Strikeouts (-120)
• Framber Valdez OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (-130)
• Shane Bieber OVER 6.5 Strikeouts (-140)
• Walker Buehler OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (+115)

Corbin Burnes UNDER 8.5 Strikeouts (-120) - San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers

Burnes is an elite strikeout pitcher, evidenced by his 18 strikeouts over his last two starts. But 8.5 is just a tad too high for me to jump on vs. a Giants team that ranks middle-of-the-pack in punch outs this season.

Burnes also tossed his two best outings of the season against two basement-dweller teams in the Baltimore Orioles and Pittsburgh Pirates. San Francisco is just outside the top 10 in home runs and fourth in total runs scored, and Burnes has made a few mistakes middle-in this year.

While their walk rate is down from a season ago, they still have controlled at-bats and should make Burnes work a little harder than in his previous two outings. -- Ben Heisler

Framber Valdez OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (-130) - Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers

Valdez has struggled with his control of late, but this number is way too low given the stuff Valdez has. He has glowing numbers in 5 starts against the Rangers, punching out more than 10 per 9 innings.

Despite only getting 3 K's in his last two starts, I'm banking on some better control from Valdez, who is nearly doubling his walk rate in 2022, and a longer outing, which will turn to a big uptick in strikeouts. -- Reed Wallach

Shane Bieber OVER 6.5 Strikeouts (-140) - Cleveland Guardians vs. Los Angeles Angels

As hot as the Angels offense has been this season, they've had strikeout issues through the first few weeks of the season. They rank 22nd in strikeout percentage heading into tonight's game against the Guardians, striking out on 24.5% of plate appearances. That's not good when you're facing a guy like Shane Bieber.

Bieber has only surpassed this number once this season, but he was held to only 4.2 innings in his first game and 5.1 in his second. In his latest start, Bieber pitched six full innings and record seven strikeouts. I think he hits that mark against tonight. -- Iain MacMillan

Walker Buehler OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (+115) - Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

I’ll admit, it has been a slow start for Walker Buehler in the strikeout department, as he’s totaled just 11 through his first three starts, but he has a solid spot to get back on track on Monday.

Buehler takes on the Arizona Diamondbacks, who rank 28th in MLB in strikeouts per game (9.44). Even though he hasn’t recorded over 5.5 K’s in a game this season, it’s worth noting that two of those outings came against better teams at avoiding the punchout (Colorado, 7th, Atlanta, 19th).

Buehler averages 9.8 strikeouts per nine innings for his career, and has been over 9.2 punch outs per nine in every season of his career. This year, that number is down to just 6.3 through his first three starts. He’s due for some positive regression against one of baseball’s worst teams. -- Peter Dewey

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