Betsided

Best MLB Prop Bets Today (Caleb Kilian Is Pitcher To Back On Tuesday)

By Donnavan Smoot

St. Louis Cardinals v Chicago Cubs - Game Two
St. Louis Cardinals v Chicago Cubs - Game Two / Nuccio DiNuzzo/GettyImages
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We didn't have a terrible day on Tuesday, going 3-2. However, today we have five props that we're confident will get the job done. Two come from the "Battle of L.A.," while two come from the Rays-Yankees game. We're big fish hunting in big cities today.

There’s a lot of picks to get to, so let’s jump right into it. 

Best MLB Prop Bets Record to Date

  • MLB Best Prop Bets Record: 109-92-0 

Here are the plays our team is eyeing for tonight’s slate with odds coming from WynnBET and consensus lines. 

Best MLB Prop Bets Today

  • Reid Detmers UNDER 3.5 Strikeouts (+100)
  • Yankees-Rays First Five Innings UNDER 3.5 (-120)
  • Nestor Cortes UNDER 5.5 Strikeouts (+110)
  • Tyler Anderson OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (+120)
  • Caleb Killian OVER 3.5 Strikeouts (-130)

Reid Detmers UNDER 3.5 Strikeouts (+100)

Anderson is the pitcher I trust in this matchup, and Detmers is the one I can’t. He’s missed this line in three of his last five starts. While he’s been able to cut down on the home runs allowed, he still isn’t going very long into his starts – which concerns me. He’s pitched less than five innings in three of his last five starts and in four of the last six. The Dodgers’ lineup is one of the best in baseball and they will have Detmers’ number tonight.  – Donnavan Smoot

Yankees-Rays First Five Innings UNDER 3.5 (-120)

Both of these teams have been great when these two starters are on the mound.

The Rays have gone 9-3 in Shane McClanahan’s 12 starts, and the Yankees are 8-3 in Nestor Cortes’ 11 starts so far this season.

Cortes comes off his worst outing of the season against the Twins, allowing four runs in 4.1 innings. However, he pitched eight innings of one-run ball against the Rays earlier this season. McClanahan had a similar performance against the Yanks, throwing six innings of one-run ball in a win.

As much as I love McClanahan’s profile this season (94th percentile in expected ERA, 97th percentile in strikeout percentage, 96 percentile in whiff percentage), I can’t back the Rays in the full game.

Tampa Bay’s offense has been suspect as of late, ranking 25th in OPS over the last 15 days.

Instead of taking this full game, I’ll trust both starters and take the first five innings UNDER. – Peter Dewey

Nestor Cortes UNDER 5.5 Strikeouts (+110)

Nestor Cortes will get the start against the Rays today, and Tampa Bay has a deceiving strikeout rate. They rank 21st in total strikeout rate, striking out on 23.1% of their plate appearances, but that's why you need to take one step closer when breaking down your handicapping for strikeout props. If you sort it by how they do against lefties vs. righties, they rank 25th in strikeout rate against righties, but they actually have the third lowest strikeout rate in the Majors when facing left-handed pitchers, striking out on just 17.8% of plate appearances. Now they face a lefty in Cortes tonight, so I feel comfortable taking the UNDER on his strikeout total at plus-money. – Iain MacMillan

Tyler Anderson OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (+120)

Anderson is coming off of two straight unders on this number, but is in a favorable spot against the Angles, who have the highest strikeout rate in baseball since the beginning of May. Getting + money on this prop is enticing for Anderson, who has gone six or more innings in five starts prior to just three last time out. I'm going to back him to get back on track and sit down the sliding Halos. – Reed Wallach 

Caleb Killian OVER 3.5 Strikeouts (-130)

Not much is going right for the Cubs these days; losers of eight straight games, but Killian might be one of them.

The Cubs' No. 5 prospect and top team pitching prospect at MLB.com pitched five solid innings in his Big League debut vs. the red-hot Cardinals last week; striking out six giving up three hits and three runs.

In 10 starts at the Minor League level, he had a strikeout/9 innings of just under 10, while also limiting home runs to just 0.63/9 innings. The Padres, despite their dominating numbers at the plate still punch out over 22% of their at-bats, and 3.5 isn't a tough number to climb when Chicago desperately needs innings from their starter. – Ben Heisler

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