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Best MLB prop bets today (Can’t trust struggling Carlos Rodon vs. Mets)

Breaking down the best prop bet picks in Major League Baseball for the action on Wednesday, July 26.

By Peter Dewey

New York Yankees starting pitcher Carlos Rodon.
New York Yankees starting pitcher Carlos Rodon. / Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
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The Major League Baseball prop market is ready for the taking on Wednesday, and I have three different plays after a 2-for-3 night on Tuesday. 

Blake Snell and Justin Verlander came through for us on Tuesday, but we’re fading a few starting pitchers on July 26. 

Let’s break them down: 

Best MLB prop bets today

  • Toronto Blue Jays-Los Angeles Dodgers first five innings OVER 5.5 runs (-110)
  • Carlos Rodon UNDER 6.5 strikeouts (-110)
  • Marcus Stroman OVER 1.5 walks allowed (-110)

Toronto Blue Jays-Los Angeles Dodgers first five innings OVER 5.5 runs (-110)

The starting pitching matchup between the Toronto Blue Jays’ Yusei Kikuchi and the Los Angeles Dodgers’ Tony Gonsolin could lead to some fireworks on Wednesday. 

Here’s why: 

  • Kikuchi enters this game with a 4.95 Fielding Independent Pitching, a run higher than this ERA. 
  • Gonsolin hasn’t been much better, posting a 4.73 FIP despite a sub 4.00 ERA. 
  • The Dodgers starter has allowed four or more runs in six of his last eight starts. 
  • Gonsolin has an ERA of 5.79 since the start of June.
  • Kikuchi ranks in just the 14th percentile in average exit velocity against this season. 

In short, both of these pitchers are due to keep regressing. I love the OVER early on in this one. 

Carlos Rodon UNDER 6.5 strikeouts (-110)

New York Yankees lefty Carlos Rodon has not gotten off to a hot start in the Bronx, going 0-3 with a 7.36 ERA in his first three starts with the team. 

Rodon has a chance to bounce back against a New York Mets offense that ranks 25th in the league in OPS against lefties, but I’m still fading his strikeout prop. 

So far this season, Rodon has pitched 5.1 innings or less in every start, and he’s only punched out 11 batters in those three outings. He’s failed to clear this number in each start, and now he’s taking on a New York team that doesn’t go down to the punch out, ranking No. 5 in the league in Ks per game (7.97). 

Unless Rodon turns in a gem – something he’s not been capable of in 2023 – he should fall short of this number. 

Marcus Stroman OVER 1.5 walks allowed (-110)

There isn’t a team in Major League Baseball that walks less than the Chicago White Sox, but I’m putting my trust in them on Wednesday night against Chicago Cubs ace Marcus Stroman. 

The Cubs right-hander has been great this season, posting a 3.09 ERA and 1.14 WHIP, but he has struggled with walks. 

Stroman has allowed two or more free passes in 15 of his 21 starts this season and this month he’s walked 11 batters in 20.1 innings of work. 

While the White Sox don’t draw walks, this price feels like a discount on Stroman considering how often he’s allowed two free passes this season. I’ll take a shot on it on Wednesday.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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