Betsided

Best MLB Prop Bets Today (Carlos Rodon Is Top Pitcher To Fade On Tuesday)

By Donnavan Smoot

Jul 21, 2022; Los Angeles, California, USA; San Francisco Giants starting pitcher Carlos Rodon (16)
Jul 21, 2022; Los Angeles, California, USA; San Francisco Giants starting pitcher Carlos Rodon (16) / Richard Mackson-USA TODAY Sports
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Monday’s crew went 2-2 on prop bets, missing on Nick Pivetta’s UNDER and Rougned Odor’s total bases. Today, the entire team is on and we’re looking for a clean sweep.

You can also find game-by-game betting plays and previews for every matchup on our MLB Picks page, as well as each team's probable pitchers, weather reports and totals for the day's slate and more.

Best MLB Prop Bets Record to Date

  • MLB Best Prop Bets Record: 162-134-0 

Best MLB Prop Bets Today

  • Pablo Lopez OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (-120)
  • Aaron Nola OVER 7.5 Strikeouts (-110)
  • Carlos Rodon UNDER 7.5 Strikeouts (-150)
  • George Kirby OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (+120)
  • Bryan Reynolds OVER 0.5 Singles (-125)

Pablo Lopez OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (-120)

After missing this line in four straight starts, Lopez got back on track in his last start. Today, I’m going to ride that momentum and take the OVER. He’s going against the Reds, who average the eighth-most strikeouts per game. In three of the four games Lopez recently missed this line, it was by one strikeout. He’s consistently around this number, so I’ll play the matchup and trust him to fan several Reds today. – Donnavan Smoot

Aaron Nola OVER 7.5 Strikeouts (-110)

Aaron Nola has put together a strong season for the Philadelphia Phillies, and he has a favorable matchup strikeout wise against the Atlanta Braves on Tuesday.

The Braves average the second most strikeouts per game this season (9.34), and Nola punched out eight Braves batters in his last outing against them.

Over his last six starts, Nola has cleared this number four times and landed on seven punch outs once. I think he rolls against a Braves lineup that has a ton of swing and misses. – Peter Dewey

Carlos Rodon UNDER 7.5 Strikeouts (-150)

Betting on the Diamondbacks, one of the worst teams in the Majors, to not strikeout against Carlos Rodon may seem crazy, but Arizona actually has the lowest strikeout rate amongst all teams in the month of July. During this span, they've struck out on only 17.8% of their plate appearances. Meanwhile, Rodon has only surpassed this total once in his last six starts. It may be tough to swallow the juice at -150, but it's a sneaky strong prop play for tonight's MLB action. – Iain MacMillan

George Kirby OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (+120)

Kirby may have fallen short of this number in two of his last three starts, but I expect him to outperform his average strikeout mark (5.1) against a Rangers team that is striking out at the sixth highest clip in the month of July. The Mariners rookie has been outstanding for the likely Wild Card team and I'm all for grabbing him at + money to keep it rolling against Texas. – Reed Wallach

Bryan Reynolds OVER 0.5 Singles (-125) - DraftKings Sportsbook

Reynolds and the Pirates take on Keegan Thompson and the Cubs at Wrigley this afternoon. While Thompson has been one of the lone bright spots on this year's roster, he's had issues getting Reynolds out specifically. In eight ABs, Reynolds is 5 for 8 with four singles and a triple.

While I prefer to bet the line on total bases to avoid a situation where Reynolds only ends up with a double, triple or dinger; costing me my bet, the sample indicates a single in half of his ABs. Additionally, most books have the total bases set to 1.5, which gives an additional number to have to cross.

The value is reasonable, especially given Reynolds' prior history. I hope he hits one well. Just not too well. – Ben Heisler

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