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Best MLB prop bets today (Carlos Rodon, Jesus Luzardo among pitchers to fade)

Carlos Rodon has struggled in 2023, and things likely won't change against Washington.

By Peter Dewey

New York Yankees starting pitcher Carlos Rodon.
New York Yankees starting pitcher Carlos Rodon. / Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
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We’re back to a full slate of Major League Baseball games on Tuesday night, which means there are plenty of prop plays to pull from in the betting market. 

I’m focusing on a pair of left-handed pitchers – Carlos Rodon and Jesus Luzardo – on Tuesday, as they’ve both struggled as of late. 

Rodon is making his return from the injured list for the New York Yankees while Luzardo has been brutal in August, posting an 11.68 ERA across three starts. 

Here’s how to fade these starters to make a little cash on Tuesday night: 

Best MLB prop bets today

  • Jesus Luzardo OVER 4.5 hits allowed
  • Carlos Rodon UNDER 5.5 strikeouts
  • Freddie Freeman OVER 1.5 total bases

Jesus Luzardo OVER 4.5 hits allowed

Miami Marlins lefty Jesus Luzardo has thrown the most innings of his MLB career this season, and he could be experiencing some fatigue because of it. The lefty’s ERA has risen from 3.38 to 4.13 in August. 

Now, he takes on a San Diego Padres team that is No. 5 in the league in OPS against lefties. Given these August numbers, I think Luzardo is a fade candidate: 

Jesus Luzardo August stats

  • 12.1 innings pitched
  • 23 hits allowed
  • 17 runs (16 earned)
  • 6 walks
  • 13 strikeouts
  • FIP: 11.05
  • Opponent batting average: .397

I like the hits allowed prop the most here, as Luzardo was struggling with this even when he was pitching well. Dating back to the start of July, Luzardo has made eight starts, allowing five or more hits in six of them. 

The Padres should jump all over him in this matchup. 

Carlos Rodon UNDER 5.5 strikeouts

Carlos Rodon has been a disappointment for the Yankees in his first season in pinstripes, posting a 7.33 ERA in six starts. He’s cleared this strikeout prop in just one outing. 

Normally a great strikeout pitcher, Rodon has dealt with injuries in 2023 that have limited his upside. He has a strikeout percentage of just 20.5 percent, way down from his last two seasons (33.4 and 34.6). 

Coming off the IL, I simply can’t trust him against the Washington Nationals, who average just 7.09 strikeouts per game, the second-best mark in MLB. 

Freddie Freeman OVER 1.5 total bases

Los Angeles Dodgers star Freddie Freeman gets a crack at a familiar face on Tuesday in former teammate Noah Syndergaard. 

Syndergaard and Freeman also faced off a ton during their time in the NL East, with Freeman hitting a cool .417/.462/.750 in 24 at bats against Thor. 

Since being traded to Cleveland, Syndergaard has struggled, posting a 5.06 ERA in four starts. He’s been awful in 2023 overall, putting up a 6.57 ERA. 

I think Freeman can stay hot against the former star righty, and I wouldn’t be shocked if he picks up an extra-base hit to clear this prop in one at bat.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Find Peter Dewey's betting record here.

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