The BetSided team has plenty of props for you today. We've had a strong two-day stretch and have gotten back to .500 on the year. Let's get into today's picks and keep the hot streak up.
Best MLB Prop Bets Record to Date
- MLB Best Prop Bets Record: 38-38-0
Here are the plays our team is eyeing for tonight’s slate with odds coming from WynnBET and consensus lines.
Best MLB Prop Bets Today
- Aaron Civale UNDER 3.5 Strikeouts (+112)
- Detroit Tigers First Five Innings Total Runs OVER 1.5 (-125)
- Shane McClanahan OVER 6.5 Strikeouts (+106)
- Nick Martinez UNDER 4.5 Strikeouts (+100)
- Shane McClanahan UNDER 6.5 K's (-150)
Aaron Civale UNDER 3.5 Strikeouts (+112)
I will gladly fade Civale today. Due to his start, I picked George Springer as my Daily Dinger for the day. Civale has only cleared this line once in four starts this season. He doesn’t pitch long, averaging less than four innings per start. Civale also has 13.50 ERA over the last seven days. This is a must-fade for baseball fans today. – Donnavan Smoot
Detroit Tigers First Five Innings Total Runs OVER 1.5 (-125)
The Detroit Tigers come into Thursday’s game against the Houston Astros ranking 29th in runs scored, but they are facing Jose Urquidy, who has gotten knocked around to start the 2022 season.
When looking at some of his advanced numbers via Baseball Savant, it’s shocking that Urquidy only has a 5.95 ERA. He ranks in the fifth percentile in expected ERA, the 12th percentile in hard hit percentage and the 13th percentile in barrel percentage.
I think Detroit can jump on him in the early innings, and I like this over more than the Tigers’ team total at 3.5 runs.– Peter Dewey
Shane McClanahan OVER 6.5 Strikeouts (+106)
Shane McClanahan is averaging a blistering 14 strikeouts per nine innings, but yet sportsbooks seem slow to adjust his strikeout prop totals, so I'll keep riding the sophomore pitcher. He's surpassed this mark in all five of his starts this season, and he's coming off an 11 strikeout performance in only five innings against the Twins. I see no reason not to back this prop bet, especially if you can get it at plus-money, tonight. – Iain MacMillan
Nick Martinez UNDER 4.5 Strikeouts (+100)
Martinez isn't a strikeout pitcher by any means, and I'm not bullish of his chances of finding success on Thursday against the Marlins. Martinez averages below 6 strikeouts per 9 innings and is yet to pitch past the 5th inning in his 4 starts this season. Against the Marlins, he'll be matched up with a team that is top 5 in walk rate which can have him laboring early and often. With a limited outing on the way and a low strikeout rate to begin with, I'll take the even money under. – Reed Wallach
Shane McClanahan UNDER 6.5 Strikeouts (-150)
There's a phenomenal pitcher's duel in the pacific northwest tonight when last year's AL Cy Young winner Robbie Ray and the Seattle Mariners host fellow flame-throwing lefty Shane McClanahan and the Tampa Bay Rays.
McClanahan's strikeout prop is only set at 6.5, with plus-juice on the over, and after clearing this number in every game this season, I can't help but wonder if there's something I just don't know here.
Then I found it.
Via Vaughn Dalzell, starting pitchers have only hit this number twice all season against the Mariners; going 2-23 to the OVER on 6.5 punch outs.
There's no doubt McClanahan's stuff plays vs. anyone, but in his five starts this year, he's only faced one team with a winning record in the Minnesota Twins.
As much as I want to buy in that he can clear the number again, I think sharps know that this just isn't his night. – Ben Heisler