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Best MLB Prop Bets Today (Fade German Marquez, Back Starters in Astros-Orioles)

By Peter Dewey

Colorado Rockies starting pitcher German Marquez.
Colorado Rockies starting pitcher German Marquez. / Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
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Looking for some prop plays in Major League Baseball on Sunday? 

The BetSided team has you covered, fresh off a 2-0 day on Saturday with one pitcher to fade and another two starters to trust. 

Let’s jump into today’s picks!

Best MLB Prop Bets Today

  • Baltimore Orioles-Houston Astros First Five Innings UNDER 4 (-125)
  • German Marquez OVER 5.5 Hits Allowed (-140)

Best MLB Prop Bets Record to Date

  • MLB Best Prop Bets Record: 208-184-0

Baltimore Orioles-Houston Astros First Five Innings UNDER 4 (-125)

The O’s have held the Astros to just one run so far in this series, and I think there’s some value in backing both Austin Voth and Justin Verlander with a first five innings UNDER in this matchup. 

Voth has allowed two or fewer earned runs in seven of his last nine outings, and even if he doesn’t end up pitching the full five, the O’s have one of the best bullpens in baseball this season, ranking fourth in bullpen ERA. 

Verlander has a 1.57 ERA since the start of July (eight starts), and he’s one or fewer earned runs in six of his last eight outings. The first five innings total is at four in this game, so there’s some value in having the ability to push in a matchup between two solid starters. 

Given the way both teams have hit in this series (six total runs in two games), this feels like an easy play to make. 

German Marquez OVER 5.5 Hits Allowed (-140)

My favorite player prop for Sunday’s action comes in the Colorado Rockies-New York Mets matchup, as we’re fading a former All-Star. 

German Marquez has really struggled to miss barrels this season, with opponents hitting .276/.334/.487 against him in 2022. 

I’m going to take the OVER on Marquez’s hits allowed prop, which is set at 5.5 at most books. Over his last nine starts (since the start of July), Marquez has allowed six or more hits in seven of those outings. 

The only times he went UNDER? Against the Arizona Diamondbacks, twice. 

That’s going to be a problem against a Mets team that is top 10 in MLB in OPS and runs scored over the last 15 days. 

Marquez is a must fade here against a good Mets team at home, especially since the Rockies are willing to pitch him deep into games, with at least six innings pitched in each of his last nine starts. 

Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record here.

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