Best MLB prop bets today (Fade Quinn Priester in second MLB start)
By Peter Dewey
Monday’s Major League Baseball is a bit of a shorter slate with some teams on travel days, but that doesn’t mean we can’t make some picks in the prop market.
I have two plays that I’m looking at, focused on three different starting pitchers. Also, while there aren’t odds for it up at the time of this writing, I do like the UNDER on Michael Grove’s outs prop in the Los Angeles Dodgers-Toronto Blue Jays game.
Grove has pitched more than five innings just one time all season, so anything around 14.5 or higher is worth taking the UNDER.
Let’s dive into the picks that I’ve already bet for Monday:
Best MLB prop bets today
- Quinn Priester OVER 4.5 hits allowed
- Seattle Mariners-Minnesota Twins NRFI
Quinn Priester OVER 4.5 hits allowed
Pittsburgh Pirates prospect Quinn Priester struggled mightily in his Major League debut against the Cleveland Guardians, allowing seven hits and seven earned runs in 5.1 innings of work.
Cleveland has one of the worst offenses in all of baseball (24th in OPS, 26th in runs scored), yet it dominated the young right-hander.
That’s problematic for Priester on the road against the San Diego Padres, who rank 14th in OPS and runs scored this season.
This season in AAA, Priester posted a 4.31 ERA and 1.357 WHIP, which are concerning numbers for a player being asked to pitch at the Major League level. Had he not been a top prospect, he may not have gotten the call to the bigs with those statistics.
Priester 84 hits in 87.2 innings in AAA this season, so I wouldn’t be shocked if he is knocked around by the Padres, especially if the Pirates allow him to pitch into the sixth inning again.
I’ll fade him on Monday night.
Seattle Mariners-Minnesota Twins NRFI
The Seattle Mariners and Minnesota Twins face off for the second series in as many weeks, and we have a familiar matchup with Seattle’s Luis Castillo taking on Minnesota’s Kenta Maeda.
These two pitchers both were scoreless in the first inning in their last meeting, and they have solid metrics in the first inning that warrant a NRFI bet.
Castillo has a 3.15 ERA in the first inning and opponents are hitting just .176 against him in the opening frame. Maeda has been even better, posting a 2.00 ERA in the first frame with opponents hitting just .167.
The Mariners (21st in first inning runs) and Twins (12th in first inning runs) have both been below average on offense this season, ranking in the bottom half in MLB in OPS.
This is a no-brainer NRFI for me on Monday.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.