Betsided

Best MLB Prop Bets Today (Fade Rookie Star at Home)

By Donnavan Smoot, Ben Heisler, Peter Dewey, Reed Wallach

Atlanta Braves v Washington Nationals
Atlanta Braves v Washington Nationals / Mitchell Layton/GettyImages
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The BetSided team is back with a full set of props for Tuesday's slate of MLB games. Today, every member of the team is going to the mound with their props.

Yesterday wasn't a terrible day for the squad, as we went 2-1. We have some great games on the slate today, so let's jump into the the picks we have for them.

Best MLB Prop Bets Record to Date

  • MLB Best Prop Bets Record: 118-100-0 

Here are the plays our team is eyeing for tonight’s slate with odds coming from WynnBET and consensus lines. 

Best MLB Prop Bets Today

  • Matt Swarmer OVER 3.5 Strikeouts (-134)
  • Zac Gallen OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (-130)
  • Nestor Cortes OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (-120)
  • Spencer Strider UNDER 6.5 Strikeouts (+105)

Matt Swarmer OVER 3.5 Strikeouts (-134)

I think Matt Swarmer is going to be my new guy to bet on. He came through for me last time, and I’ll back him again with a great matchup like today. The Pirates have the third highest strikeout rate in the majors. If Swarmer can stay on the mound long enough, he can clear this easily. He’s cleared this line in every start this season. The Pirates are one of the best matchups for any pitcher, and Swarmer is no different. – Donnavan Smoot

Zac Gallen OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (-130)

Zac Gallen has cooled off after a great start to the 2022 season, but I’m jumping back on the train and backing his strikeout prop on Tuesday.

Gallen will face a San Diego Padres lineup that strikes out 8.22 times per game and is without MVP candidate Manny Machado. Gallen has cleared this number in seven of his 12 starts this season despite a recent rough patch.

Also, Gallen has an impressive chase rate (ranking in the 74th percentile per Baseball Savant) this season. After tossing seven innings of two-hit ball his last outing, now’s the time to get back on the train behind Gallen. – Peter Dewey

Nestor Cortes OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (-120)

Cortes is facing a struggling Rays lineup that has injuries to the likes of Wander Franco and now Manuel Margot. The team has the 10th highest strikeout rate in baseball over the month of June as they battle the injury bug. Now, Cortes has struck out just five and four batters in two starts this season, but I can't trust the Rays offense to avoid swing and misses. I'll back Cortes at this low number. – Reed Wallach

Spencer Strider UNDER 6.5 Strikeouts (+105)

Hey, it's me. Your Buzzkill Bet of the Day here to ruin your good time and tell you to take the under on rookie stud Spencer Strider's strikeout prop at home. Even the alliteration alone makes you want to take the over.

Strider has an absurd 13.91 K/9 rate this year. In 44 innings, he's already racked up 68 punchouts. But the number is too high against a really good offense, and it's important to remember who he's dominated against as of late:

  • 6/15: 5.2 IP, 11 K's at Washington
  • 6/10: 5.2 IP, 8 K's vs. Pittsburgh

Prior to those two starts, Strider had not thrown more than 4.1 innings in any game. The Giants are middle of the pack in strikeout percentage this year (22.7%), but they're also No. 2 in baseball in walk rate; something that's been an issue for Strider this year (4.30 BB/9).

Hate to be "That Guy," but now's the ideal time to fade Strider's over-inflated strikeout number. – Ben Heisler 

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