Betsided

Best MLB Prop Bets Today (Find Success With Low Strikeout Totals)

By Donnavan Smoot, Ben Heisler, Peter Dewey, Reed Wallach

Minnesota Twins v Seattle Mariners
Minnesota Twins v Seattle Mariners / Steph Chambers/GettyImages
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Outside of a missed Nestor Cortes Jr. prop, the team had a great day yesterday. We went 3-1 on Tuesday, and are looking to make up for that one missed prop today. With a few low total strikeout lines, we're hoping these pitchers do just enough to get us over the hump.

There’s a lot of picks to get to, so let’s jump right into it. 

Best MLB Prop Bets Record to Date

  • MLB Best Prop Bets Record: 121-101-0 

Here are the plays our team is eyeing for tonight’s slate with odds coming from WynnBET and consensus lines. 

Best MLB Prop Bets Today

  • Charlie Morton OVER 6.5 Strikeouts (+112)
  • Sonny Gray OVER 3.5 Strikeouts (-170)
  • Carlos Carrasco UNDER 4.5 Strikeouts (-115)
  • Mike Clevinger OVER 4.5 K's (-105) 

Charlie Morton OVER 6.5 Strikeouts (+112)

Morton has cleared this line easily in his last three games. He’s started off June on fire and will continue on that path tonight. The Giants have the fifth-worst strikeout rate over the last three games (two of which were against the Braves). San Francisco is being aggressive and failing right now. With the way Morton is pitching right now, I’ll back the hot hand. – Donnavan Smoot

Sonny Gray OVER 3.5 Strikeouts (-170)

Sonny Gray is making his second start since returning from the injured list, and I think that his strikeout prop is way too low on Wednesday night.

The Minnesota Twins ace has cleared 3.5 strikeouts in six of his eight start this season, just missing in his last start since he threw just 65 pitches. If Gray gets a longer leash tonight against the Cleveland Guardians, he should be able to clear this prop.

The Guardians strike out less than any other team in baseball this season (6.98 times per game), but they are averaging 11.67 strikeouts per game over their last three contests. Gray also punched out eight batters in 4.1 innings in his lone start versus Cleveland this season.

This number is just too low not to take. – Peter Dewey

Carlos Carrasco UNDER 4.5 Strikeouts (-115)

It's a low mark but there's plenty of reason to expect a low strikeout output for Cookie on the road. Carrasco has an ERA of 5.18 in six road starts this season and will be facing the Astros, who not only have a strong offense but the lowest K rate in the big leagues this month. There's a chance Carrasco gets shelled, or he pitches to his fine form this season in a big spot, but I am not counting on a high rate of strikeouts. – Reed Wallach

Mike Clevinger OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (-105)

Padres fans are still waiting to see the former Cleveland stud they acquired in a deal a few years back. He's failed to pass 5 innings in all but one of four starts, and hasn't started since June 5; giving up two runs in two innings to the Rockies in Coors Field.

However, the stuff is there. Clevinger is averaging 10.42 strikeouts per nine innings this year, pitching to a 3.79 ERA and FIP of 3.28. Arizona also owns the fourth-highest strikeout rate in the Majors at 24.5%.

Clevinger's gotten plenty of rest in between starts, and should be ready to let it rip tonight at pitcher-friendly Petco Park. – Ben Heisler 

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