Best MLB prop bets today (How to bet Aaron Judge against Rays)

Breaking down the best prop bets in Major League Baseball on Monday, July 31.
New York Yankees right fielder Aaron Judge (99) reacts.
New York Yankees right fielder Aaron Judge (99) reacts. / Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

New York Yankees slugger Aaron Judge returned to the lineup this past weekend and made an immediate impact, making him a focus of Monday’s best MLB prop bets. 

Usually, I love to roll with pitcher only props in these picks, but today we have one hitter prop, one pitcher prop and a team total to look at for the shortened Monday slate. 

Let’s break down each pick, along with the latest odds: 

Best MLB prop bets today

  • Houston Astros team total OVER 4.5 runs (-140)
  • Marcus Stroman OVER 1.5 walks allowed (-180)
  • Aaron Judge OVER 0.5 walks (-135)

Houston Astros team total OVER 4.5 runs (-140)

The Houston Astros have a favorable matchup on Monday as they’ll take on the Cleveland Guardians and newly-acquired starter Noah Syndergaard. 

Syndergaard – also known as Thor – has been brutal in 2023, posting a 7.16 ERA and 5.54 Fielding Independent Pitching during his time with the Los Angeles Dodgers. 

This will be his first start in the Majors since June 7, so there could be some rust on an already struggling pitcher. 

Syndergaard has allowed at least five runs in his last three outings, and that’s not even mentioning what the bullpen gave up after him. Cleveland does have one of the best units in the league, but can it survive even a few innings from Thor?

I’m not so sure. 

Over the last 30 days, Houston is 10th in Major League Baseball in OPS and fourth in runs scored. The team should pounce all over Syndergaard in this matchup. 

Marcus Stroman OVER 1.5 walks allowed (-180)

Chicago Cubs starter Marcus Stroman has been brutal in July, posting a 7.99 ERA in five starts, and he’s walked 13 batters over that stretch. 

I took this prop in Stroman’s last start and it hit, so why not go back to the well?

In 22 starts in 2023, Stroman has walked multiple batters 16 times, hitting the OVER on this prop at nearly a 73 percent clip. 

His opponent on Monday – the Cincinnati Reds – are one of the best teams in Major League Baseball in drawing walks, ranking seventh in MLB at 3.5 per game. 

This is a great spot to fade a struggling Stroman. 

Aaron Judge OVER 0.5 walks (-135)

When Aaron Judge plays baseball, you almost have to bet on him. 

The Yankees slugger picked up right where he left off this weekend, going 3-for-6 with two runs batted in, two runs scored, a home run and three walks in two games against the Baltimore Orioles. 

I wouldn't be shocked if the Tampa Bay Rays and Tyler Glasnow try to pitch around Judge considering how bad the rest of the Yankees’ lineup has been. 

In 11 career plate appearances against Glasnow, Judge is 2-for-10 with a walk. I think he could draw a free pass against the Rays’ ace, but I also wouldn’t be shocked if Tampa is careful with him in the later innings in this game as well.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change