Painting Corners: Best MLB Prop Bets Today (Kyle Harrison Undervalued, Carlos Rodon Stays Hot)
By Peter Dewey
Looking for a fun way to bet on Major League Baseball on Thursday?
There are a few afternoon starts with today being a travel day, and I’m targeting a player prop in two of the earliest matchups between the Miami Marlins and Colorado Rockies and the New York Yankees and Baltimore Orioles.
Per usual, the focus is on some of the pitchers on the mound tonight, and I’m actually trusting all three picks to have strong starts.
Let’s break down each play for May 2:
Best MLB Prop Bets for Thursday, May 2
- Carlos Rodon UNDER 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed
- Kyle Harrison OVER 15.5 Outs Recorded
- Edward Cabrera OVER 6.5 Strikeouts
Carlos Rodon UNDER 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed
New York Yankees starter Carlos Rodon has been lights out over his last two starts, allowing just three hits and one earned run in 13.0 innings of work.
On the season, Rodon has a 2.48 ERA, allowing two or fewer earned runs in five of his six outings.
He’s facing a tough Baltimore Orioles offense, which ranks No. 3 in Major League Baseball in OPS against left-handed pitching, but Rodon has been pretty dominant in 2024.
He has a 1.19 WHIP, and he’s coming off his best strikeout outing of the season, a promising sign after an injury-riddled 2023 season.
I’ll give Rodon some respect here and take the UNDER on his earned runs prop, even against a good offense.
Kyle Harrison OVER 15.5 Outs Recorded
San Francisco Giants youngster Kyle Harrison has pitched well this season, leading the team to a 4-2 record in his six outings while posting a 4.09 ERA and 3.86 FIP.
He’s thrown exactly six innings in four of his starts, yet he’s +125 to get through 5.1 innings on Thursday against the Boston Red Sox.
Boston has been decent against lefties this season, ranking No. 12 in the league in OPS against them, but Harrison has just two outings where he’s fallen short of this outs recorded prop.
Plus, the Giants allowed him to throw a season-high 93 pitches in his last outing. These props can be tough to predict if the team has a quick hook, but Harrison has recorded 18 four times this season. There’s no way this should be the price for his prop on Thursday.
Edward Cabrera OVER 6.5 Strikeouts
Miami Marlins starter Edward Cabrera is one of the better strikeout pitchers in baseball, and now he takes on a Colorado Rockies team that strikes out the sixth most times in the league in 2024.
Cabrera has a 5.28 ERA this season, but he’s punched out 21 batters in 15.1 innings. He’s also due for some positive regression, as his Fielding Independent Pitching sits at 2.42 through three starts.
The young righty has seven or more strikeouts in two of his three starts, and I think he’s primed to bounce back after allowing six runs (five earned) across 4.1 innings in his last start.
Colorado is prone to the strikeout, and Statcast has Cabrera clocking in with some impressive numbers through his three starts. He’s in the 88th percentile in strikeout percentage, 74th in whiff percentage and 97th in chase rate.
I think he shuts down this Rockies offense on Thursday afternoon.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Find Peter Dewey's betting record here You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.