Best MLB prop bets today (Luis Castillo and Kenta Maeda primed for low-scoring game)
By Peter Dewey
One of the most exciting ways to bet on Major League Baseball comes to the prop market, and I have a pair of props that I like for the action on Wednesday, July 19.
There are three pitchers on my radar for tonight’s action, one to fade and two to trust. Let’s break down the picks:
Best MLB prop bets today
- Ryne Nelson OVER 6.5 hits allowed (+105)
- Minnesota Twins-Seattle Mariners first five innings UNDER 4 (-120)
Ryne Nelson OVER 6.5 hits allowed
Arizona Diamondbacks starter Ryne Nelson could be in trouble against the Atlanta Braves’ No. 1 offense on Wednesday night.
Nelson has allowed nine hits in each of his last two starts, and he has a WHIP of 1.44 on the season. The young righty allowed six hits in 4.2 innings in his lone start against the Braves this season.
If the D-Backs let Nelson pitch into this game, I think Atlanta is going to tag him given his recent struggles. Nelson has allowed seven or more hits in seven different outings this season. At plus money, this is worth a wager with Atlanta’s surging offense.
Minnesota Twins-Seattle Mariners first five innings UNDER 4
One of the better pitching matchups of the night is in Seattle between Luis Castillo and Kenta Maeda.
Maeda’s underlying numbers show he may be better than his current ERA suggests this season. The righty has just a 3.45 Fielding Independent Pitching, which is lower than Castillo (3.91).
This is the 20th start of the season for Castillo, and he’s been remarkably consistent, allowing three or fewer earned runs in 16 of his first 19 outings. He should have no problem against Minnesota, who ranks 18th in MLB in OPS and 21st in runs scored this season. The Mariners righty has pitched to a 2.67 ERA over his last 10 starts.
Meanwhile, I think Maeda could be one of the most undervalued starters in Major League Baseball this season.
His ERA is a product of one really poor outing (10 runs allowed in three innings against the New York Yankees). Since injuries have limited Maeda to just eight starts, that outing really puts a damper on his season-long numbers.
However, outside of that start he’s allowed more than three runs just once, and he ranks in the 60th percentile in expected ERA this season.
I’m not sure he’ll be able to outduel Castillo, but the Mariners’ offense has been awful in 2023, ranking 23rd in OPS and 18th in runs scored. So why not take an UNDER early in this game?
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.