Best MLB prop bets today (Taijuan Walker prop could provide massive value)
By Peter Dewey
What’s better than betting some player props for Saturday baseball action during the summer?
Per usual, I’m targeting some pitching matchups that I like on Saturday, including a plus-money prop for starting pitcher Taijuan Walker and the Philadelphia Phillies.
Let’s break down each pick and the odds:
Best MLB prop bets today
- New York Yankees-Miami Marlins NRFI (-120)
- Taijuan Walker to record a win (+250)
- Seattle Mariners first 5 innings ML vs. Baltimore Orioles (-175)
New York Yankees-Miami Marlins NRFI (-120)
The New York Yankees and Miami Marlins are two subpar offenses this season, and the pitching matchup between the two teams lines up for a No Run First Inning bet on Saturday.
The Yankees are going with reliever Michael King (2.88 ERA) as an opener in this spot against Marlins ace Sandy Alcantara.
Alcantara has allowed just eight first-inning runs this season (3.13 ERA). Plus, the Marlins are 29th in MLB in first inning runs per game (0.38).
Taijuan Walker to record a win (+250)
The Philadelphia Phillies are underdogs against Pablo Lopez and the Minnesota Twins on Sunday, but I think the oddsmakers have this game pegged wrong.
Yes, Lopez was an All-Star this season, but Phillies starter Taijuan Walker has been pitching well lately.
Despite Lopez’s success in 2023 (3.27 FIP), the Twins are just 13-10 in his 23 starts. The opposite can be said for Walker, who has a FIP of 4.39 in 2023. The Phillies are an insane 17-6 in his starts, and they’ve won 10 of his last 11 outings.
Over that stretch, Walker has a 2.60 ERA and has earned the win in nine of those games.
Plus, the offenses of these teams are on different spectrums, with Philly emerging as one of the best units in baseball over the last 15 days (third in OPS) while the Twins are in the middle of the pack, ranking 15th in OPS and runs scored over that stretch.
I think Philly wins, but I’m willing to take a shot that Walker records another decision as well.
Seattle Mariners first 5 innings ML vs. Baltimore Orioles (-175)
George Kirby and the Seattle Mariners have a massive edge in this game, as they’ll be taking on Cole Irvin who has a 5.45 ERA in eight starts this season.
Irvin has been moved to the bullpen because of his ineffectiveness, and I don’t see him turning things around against a Mariners team that has won eight in a row.
Kirby has been solid all year, pitching to a 3.32 ERA , and he’s allowed two or fewer runs in five of his last seven starts.
Seattle is a great bet early – and in the full game – on Saturday.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.