Best MLB Prop Bets Today (Taijuan Walker Sneaky Plus-Money Pick; Bet Jose Altuve)
By Peter Dewey
MLB fans are treated to some afternoon baseball action on Labor Day, and I am excited to dive into the prop market for today’s action.
There are a ton of teams battling for playoff position (especially in the National League), and I’m targeting a few of those matchups with two pitcher props and a hitter prop on Monday.
Taijuan Walker may be the best value on the board for bettors, while Jose Altuve is facing a starter he’s crushed in his career.
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Best MLB Prop Bets Today
- Taijuan Walker to record a win
- Justin Steele UNDER 2.5 earned runs allowed
- Jose Altuve OVER 1.5 total bases
Taijuan Walker to record a win
Taijuan Walker is +205 to record a win on Monday, a crazy number considering that the Philadelphia Phillies are taking on a struggling starter in San Diego Padres veteran lefty Rich Hill.
Hill has an 8.50 ERA since joining San Diego, and the team is 0-5 in his five appearances. So, why not take Walker to record a win?
While the Phillies right-hander doesn’t have numbers that will jump off the page this season (4.05 ERA, 4.49 FIP), Philly has gone 19-7 in Walker’s 26 outings in 2023, losing just three of his starts since June 1.
Over that stretch, Walker has allowed more than three earned runs on just three occasions, displaying impressive consistency.
To top it off, Philly has the No. 1 offense in baseball over the last 15 days, so I’d expect there to be run support for Walker to fall back on. He hasn’t had a start with fewer than five innings pitched (what he must do to be eligible for a win) since June 1, so I think we’re getting some insane value on him here.
Walker has recorded the win in 14 of the 19 games the Phillies have won with him on the mound. If you think Philly wins, take Walker to record a W as well.
Justin Steele UNDER 2.5 earned runs allowed
Chicago Cubs All-Star Justin Steele is coming off a dominant performance, tossing six scoreless innings in a win over the Milwaukee Brewers in his last start.
Now, he takes on a struggling San Francisco Giants offense (25th in OPS over the last 15 days) that is just 27th in the league in OPS against left-handed pitching this season.
Steele hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in a start since May 26, so we are working with a solid floor in this game.
I’d be shocked if San Fran turns around its struggles against lefties against Steele, especially since he lowered his ERA to 2.69 in his last start.
Jose Altuve OVER 1.5 total bases
Jose Altuve and the Houston Astros are fighting for their lives in the AL wild card race, but the second baseman has a matchup he’ll love against the Texas Rangers on Monday.
Andrew Heaney (4.16 ERA) gets the ball for the Rangers in this game, and he’s struggled against Altuve in his career.
The former league MVP is hitting an impressive .324/.343/.588 against Heaney in 34 at bats in his career. He’s registered 11 hits, three doubles, two homers and two RBIs against the Rangers lefty.
All we need from Altuve is a double – or a two-hit game – to clear this prop. I think he gets it done.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Find Peter Dewey's betting record here.