Best MLB Prop Bets Today (Take Unders on Early Strikeout Props for St. Louis, Chicago)

The BetSided team is all in on prop bets for the MLB season, sharing our favorite and best prop bet picks each day during the year. 

Best MLB Prop Bets Record to Date

• MLB Best Prop Bets Record: 28-34-0 

Here are the plays our team is eyeing for tonight’s slate with all odds via WynnBET:

Best MLB Prop Bets Today

• Steven Matz UNDER 5.5 strikeouts (-135)
• Dylan Cease UNDER 8.5 strikeouts (-110)
• Pablo Lopez OVER 5.5 strikeouts (-130)
• Jordan Montgomery UNDER 4.5 strikeouts (-130)

Steven Matz UNDER 5.5 Strikeouts (-135): Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals

Steven Matz and the St. Louis Cardinals will take on the Kansas City Royals on Monday afternoon, and the lefty is looking to bounce back after a rough start to the season.

Matz has a 6.11 ERA through his first four outings, but he has struck out six batters in three of his four starts. I think this is a perfect spot to fade him, as the Royals are one of the best teams in baseball at avoiding the punchout.

Kansas City is second in the league in strikeouts per game, averaging just 7.3 per outing, and I’m not sure Matz will last long enough into the game to reach the over on this prop. In his four starts, Matz has thrown a combined 17.2 innings, with his longest outing coming on April 16 when he went 5.2 against the Brewers.

Don’t be fooled by Matz’s strikeout numbers and roll with the under on this prop. -- Peter Dewey

Dylan Cease UNDER 8.5 strikeouts (-110): Los Angeles Angels vs. Chicago White Sox

Cease is certainly capable of mowing through an order, and remains one of the favorites for AL Cy Young, but this line seems awfully high against a dangerous Angels lineup.

Los Angeles is second in baseball in team weighted on-base-average (wOBA) at .342, just .001 points behind the first place Colorado Rockies who have the benefit of Coors Field in half of their games. They're third in home runs, lead the majors in runs scored, and are second in isolated power (ISO) at .175. This is a feared lineup.

Cease has gotten to 8+ strikeouts in three of his four starts, so the number feels reasonable even though he's only gone past it in one of them.

When strikeout props start climbing past 7.5, more often than not, the under is the safer bet, especially as more bullpens and matchups start to take place earlier in ballgames. -- Ben Heisler

Pablo Lopez OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (-130): Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins

Lopez has been one of the very best pitchers in all of baseball, amassing a 0.39 ERA while not giving up a single run in any of his last three starts. He's hit this strikeout prop in five of his last seven starts dating back to last season and gets to face a Diamondbacks lineup today that has the fourth-most strikeouts per game of any team.

Arizona struck out 12 times against the Cardinals yesterday and I see little reason to believe they'll have success today.

As Lopez continues to showcase his incredible ability, I don't think oddsmakers will keep his strikeout totals low for much longer. That gives us an opportunity to strike before sportsbooks properly adjust, and I love Lopez's chances to clear this prop for the fourth time in five starts this season. -- Joe Summers

Jordan Montgomery UNDER 4.5 K's (-130): New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays

Montgomery has gone over this number in just 1 of his 4 starts and I don't see it happening on Monday night either against a high powered Blue Jays offense. Toronto may see their offensive efficiency go down against left handed pitching, but Montgomery's inability to punch out hitters (6.8 K/9 innings) can lead to a ho-hum outing that has a ton of soft contact.

In a big time AL East matchup, I'll bank on Montgomery to stick to his typical output and hang around 3 or 4 strikeouts. -- Reed Wallach