Painting Corners: Best MLB Prop Bets Today (Target Pablo Lopez)
There are only seven games on the tap in Major League Baseball Thursday but there are still matchups both at the plate and on the mound to take advantage of.
Here are some prop bets to consider for the limited slate.
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Painting Corners: Best MLB Prop Bets Today
- Ozzie Albies OVER 1.5 Bases
- Pablo Lopez OVER 6.5 Strikeouts
- Cincinnati Reds Team Total UNDER 3.5 Runs
Ozzie Albies OVER 1.5 Bases
The total for Thursday’s Mets-Braves matchup opened at 10.5 with the pitching matchup of New York’s Jose Quintana (who has lost his last five starts to the Braves) and Atlanta’s Allan Winans, who has just six career starts under his belt. The total may have dropped to 9.5, but there are still favorable matchups for the Braves against Quintana, starting with Albies.
The switch-hitting infielder has already crushed the Mets in the first two games of this series, combining to go 4-for-8 with a pair of doubles, a walk and five RBIs. Albies, who is hitting .310 on the young season, is a career .337 hitter against left-handed pitching. In 11 career plate appearances against Quintana, he’s 6-for-10 with four extra-base hits. Take Albies to stay hot in the series finale.
Pablo Lopez OVER 6.5 strikeouts
Lopez is coming off an All-Star season in 2023 where the right-hander went 11-8 with a 3.66 ERA over 32 starts. Most importantly, Lopez posted a career-high 10.9 K/9 rate. He went over this strikeout total in his first start of the season with seven punchouts against Kansas City March 28.
Lopez faces a Tigers’ offense that ranks 20th in strikeouts, but has played the fewest games in the majors (11). Against Detroit in his career, Lopez has two dominant starts under his belt from last season. In a pair of 2023 outings, Lopez combined to strikeout 18 Detroit hitters in 13 innings, combining to allow just three earned runs.
The Detroit lineup is collectively hitting .230 against Lopez lifetime with a 32.7% strikeout rate (20 in 61 at-bats). Look for Lopez to continue to mow down a Tigers’ offense that is 23rd in hitting so far this season.
Cincinnati Reds Team Total UNDER 3.5 Runs
Considered Milwaukee starter Freddy Peralta’s over for strikeouts (7.5), but this gives a nice plus-money payout for the Brewers to quiet Cincinnati’s bats in Thursday’s series finale.
Peralta has permitted just four earned runs over a pair of starts this season and has an excellent track record against the Reds, posting a 5-2 record all-time and a 2.85 ERA at the hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park. In fact, Peralta has given up two runs or fewer in each of his last seven road starts against Cincinnati and twirled six innings of one-hit, shutout ball in his lone away outing against the Reds last season. In two outings against Cincinnati in 2023, Peralta combined for 12 shutout innings, yielding five hits.
Of the teams that have played 13 or fewer games, Cincinnati ranks second in the National League in strikeouts (119), the Dodgers lead in strikeouts but have played 15 games.
No one in the Reds’ lineup has had much success against Peralta, either, with a collective .150 batting average and .227 on-base percentage. Infielder Jonathan India (2-for-12) and catcher Tyler Stephenson (2-for-6) are the only Reds to own multiple hits against the right-hander.
Game odds update periodically and are subject to change.