Atlanta Braves star Austin Riley is breaking the norm in my MLB prop bets column, as it’s rare that I target a hitter in these picks.
However, Riley has such a good matchup on Monday that he’s easily making the cut for today’s best props.
I also have a pair of pitchers that bettors should consider fading on Monday because of their recent form.
Let’s break down each pick and the latest odds:
Best MLB prop bets today
- Lucas Giolito OVER 2.5 earned runs allowed
- Cristian Javier UNDER 5.5 strikeouts
- Austin Riley OVER 1.5 total bases
Lucas Giolito OVER 2.5 earned runs allowed
Things have not gone well for Los Angeles Angels starter Lucas Giolito since he’s been acquired at the trade deadline.
The righty has a 8.14 ERA across four starts with the Angels, and he’s allowed at least three runs in each of those matchups.
While the Cincinnati Reds aren’t a great offense, I can’t trust Giolito and 1.275 WHIP to keep runners off the basepaths. I think Cincy can jump on him in this game.
Cristian Javier UNDER 5.5 strikeouts
Cristian Javier simply isn’t the same pitcher he was for the Houston Astros in the 2022 season – especially in the strikeout department.
Javier was in the 94th percentile in strikeout percentage last season, but that number has dipped all the way to the 38th percentile in the 2023 campaign.
Not only that, but Javier has struck out less batters than innings pitched this season, and he’s only cleared 5.5 punchouts in two starts since May 16.
That makes this an easy UNDER against a Boston Red Sox team that averages just 8.15 strikeouts per game, good for ninth in Major League Baseball.
Austin Riley OVER 1.5 total bases
It’s pretty rare that I target a hitting prop in these picks, but I love this Austin Riley play too much to pass on it.
Riley is having another great season for the Atlanta Braves, hitting .279 with 29 homers coming into this matchup.
He takes on New York Mets lefty David Peterson on Monday, a starter he’s dominated in his career.
In 18 career at-bats against Peterson, Riley is 8-for-18 (.444) with three doubles. He’s also walked twice against Peterson, posting a cool .500 OBP against him.
I wouldn’t be shocked if Riley mashes a double early, but I also think he could turn in a two-hit game against a Mets team that has a 4.55 bullpen ERA. At plus money, this prop is too good to pass up.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Find Peter Dewey's betting record here.