Painting Corners: Best MLB Prop Bets Today (Trust Jack Flaherty, Luis Gil to Dominate on Sunday)
By Peter Dewey
One of my favorite ways to bet on Major League Baseball is in the prop market, especially when it comes to pitchers.
That’s why I’m targeting four starters on Sunday for my best props, including a young Yankees starter that has exceeded expectations early on in 2024.
Let’s break down each of these picks, and their latest odds.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Best MLB Prop Bets for Sunday, May 12
- Arizona Diamondbacks-Baltimore Orioles No Run First Inning
- Jack Flaherty OVER 5.5 Strikeouts
- Luis Gil UNDER 4.5 Hits Allowed
Arizona Diamondbacks-Baltimore Orioles No Run First Inning (-125)
If you’re looking for a first inning bet to sweat today, look no further than the first game of the day between the Arizona Diamondbacks and Baltimore Orioles.
These two teams have starters in Zac Gallen (Arizona) and Dean Kremer (Baltimore) that are primed to pitch scoreless frames to open the game.
Gallen has hit the NRFI in four of his seven starts while Kremer is a perfect 7-0 in his outings in 2024. While these are both good offenses, Gallen seemed to have found something in his last outing after some extra rest, tossing six innings of one hit ball against the Cincinnati Reds.
Both of these starters come into this game with sub-4.00 ERAs, so I expect a shutdown outing early on.
Jack Flaherty OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (+105)
Jack Flaherty is finally healthy, and the now-Detroit Tigers starter is finding his All-Star form in a big way in 2024.
Across seven starts, Flaherty has punched out at least six batters in six of those games, posting a 12.0 strikeouts per nine innings mark this season.
His advanced numbers back this up, as the righty ranks in the 97th percentile in whiff percentage, 94th percentile in strikeout percentage and 78th percentile in chase rate.
While this is a tough matchup against a Houston Astros team that averages just 6.54 strikeouts per game, I’m going to trust Flaherty’s season-long success to hit this prop again – at plus money – on Sunday.
Luis Gil UNDER 4.5 Hits Allowed (-165)
New York Yankees youngster Luis Gil is really coming into his own as a starter, posting a 2.92 ERA across seven starts in 2024.
The hard-throwing righty is a swing-and-miss machine, ranking in the 76th percentile in whiff percentage and the 85th percentile in strikeout percentage. He also has an expected batting average against of .176 – in the 96th percentile (!!) this season.
That’s why I love Gil’s hits allowed prop against the Tampa Bay Rays, who he held to two hits in 5.2 innings earlier this season. Gil has allowed just 18 hits in 37.0 innings of work, allowing more than 4.5 hits in just one of seven starts.
In fact, Gil has just one start all season where he allowed over three hits. I love him to hit this prop on Sunday.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Find Peter Dewey's betting record here You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.