Best MLB prop bets today (Trust Tarik Skubal vs. lowly Royals on Tuesday)

Tarik Skubal is one of the top players to target in the prop market on Tuesday.
Detroit Tigers starter Tarik Skubal (29).
Detroit Tigers starter Tarik Skubal (29). / Kirthmon F. Dozier / USA TODAY NETWORK

It’s been a while, but we’re back in the MLB prop bet market for the second half of the season.

On Tuesday night, there are several pitching matchups/pitchers that I want to target, starting with Detroit Tigers lefty Tarik Skubal.

Let’s break down the plays for July 18: 

Best MLB prop bets today

  • Tarik Skubal UNDER 2.5 earned runs allowed
  • Mariners-Twins first five innings UNDER 4.5 runs
  • Bryce Elder OVER 1.5 walks allowed

Tarik Skubal UNDER 2.5 earned runs allowed

Skubal has made just two starts since returning from injury, and he’s been great in both of them. 

The lefty has allowed just two hits across eight innings, and he’s yet to give up a run. 

Skubal’s Fielding Independent Pitching is also impressive, sitting at just 1.66. He’s been great, and I expect him to dominate a terrible Kansas City Royals offense. The Royals are just 28th in the league in OPS this season and 29th in runs scored.

Plus, Skubal has only thrown four innings and 57 and 63 pitches in each of his starts. As Detroit eases him in, he should be a lock to go UNDER this number.

Mariners-Twins first five innings UNDER 4.5 runs

The total in the Seattle Mariners-Minnesota Twins matchup is set at 7.5, but the first five innings total is at 4.5 despite a solid pitching matchup. 

Mariners rookie Bryan Woo has shown some promise with a 3.08 FIP in 2023. He's really pitched well since being knocked around in his Major League debut, pitching to a 2.20 ERA over his last six starts. 

He takes on Bailey Ober, who has allowed more than three earned runs in just one start all season and has a 2.61 ERA. 

Ober has induced a ton of light contact this season, ranking in the 81st percentile in hard hit percentage and 88th percentage in walk rate. He doesn’t allow a ton of baserunners, which will make it tough on Seattle to push across a lot of runs. 

I’ll trust both starters in this matchup. 

Bryce Elder OVER 1.5 walks allowed

Atlanta Braves All-Star starter Bryce Elder has struggled a bit as of late, posting a 4.69 ERA and 5.29 FIP over his last seven starts. 

Regression may be coming for Elder after a great start to 2023 where his ERA was nearly two runs lower than his FIP. 

He’s really struggled with walks, allowing two or more free passes in four straight starts and six of his last eight outings. Now, he’s taking on an Arizona team that draws over three walks per game this season. 

Elder could be in trouble on Tuesday against one of the better offenses in the league.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.