Painting Corners: Best MLB Prop Bets Today (Tyler Glasnow's Strikeout Dominance Continues)

Looking to bet on some props in the MLB on Thursday?

With just six games in action, the options are limited, but that hasn’t stopped me from finding three plays that I love, including two in the early matchup at 1:10 between the New York Yankees and Minnesota Twins.

Here’s a look at the top props to bet for May 16:

Best MLB Prop Bets for Thursday, May 16

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Tyler Glasnow OVER 8.5 Strikeouts (-110)
• Aaron Judge OVER 0.5 Hits (-190)
• Clarke Schmidt UNDER 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-140)

Tyler Glasnow OVER 8.5 Strikeouts (-110)

Los Angeles Dodgers starter Tyler Glasnow has been lights out this season, posting a 2.53 ERA while striking out 73 batters in 57.0 innings of work across nine starts.

In his last six outings, Glasnow has recorded 14, five, 10, nine, 10 and 10 strikeouts, clearing this prop five times.

He’s in a prime spot to do it again on Thursday, as the Cincinnati Reds ranks sixth in Major League Baseball when it comes to the most strikeouts this season. The other thing working in Glasnow’s favor is that he’s pitched seven or more innings in four of his last six starts, giving him plenty of outs to rack up the K’s. 

This prop may seem high, but the Dodgers’ ace is more than capable of clearing it on Thursday. 

Aaron Judge OVER 0.5 Hits (-190)

It’s very rare that we’ll get an Aaron Judge hits prop at under -200 odds, but the slow start to the season for the 2022 AL MVP gives us a chance to take advantage on Thursday.

Judge is hitting just .255 on the season, but his batting average has risen 55 points since May 1, when he was hitting just .200. The star outfielder has really found his groove over his last three games, going 4-for-4 on Wednesday night and 7-for-12 over that three-game stretch.

In his career, Judge is just 1-for-7 against Twins starter Joe Ryan, but he doesn’t have to get the hit off of the righty. Minnesota’s bullpen has allowed a 1.24 WHIP on the season, which is certainly beatable, and Judge teed off on every pitcher that came his way last night.

Don’t be shocked if he stays hot on Thursday. 

Clarke Schmidt UNDER 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-140)

Yankees starter Clarke Schmidt has been one of the most consistent pitchers the team has over the last two seasons, but especially in 2024.

So far this season, Schmidt has not allowed more than three earned runs in any of his eight starts, and the Yankees are an impressive 7-1 straight up when he takes the mound.

Six of the eight outings for Schmidt this season have resulted in him allowing two or fewer earned runs, and he’s coming off his best game of the season – 6.2 scoreless innings in a win over the Tampa Bay Rays. 

Schmidt’s 2.95 ERA is backed up by a 3.77 Fielding Independent Pitching, and I think he’s in line to shut down the Twins on Thursday.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Find Peter Dewey's betting record here You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.