Best MLB prop bets today (Value on Dylan Cease’s hits allowed prop)
By Peter Dewey
There are just five Major League Baseball games on Thursday, but that doesn’t mean we can’t find some value in the prop market.
This has been a solid week in my MLB prop picks, and Carlos Rodon and Marcus Stroman came through for us on Wednesday night.
Here are my picks for Thursday’s short slate:
Best MLB prop bets today
- Josiah Gray OVER 15.5 outs recorded (-110)
- Dylan Cease UNDER 5.5 hits allowed (-135)
Josiah Gray OVER 15.5 outs recorded (-110)
All-Star pitcher Josiah Gray gets the ball on Thursday against the New York Mets, a team that he held scoreless across six innings back in April.
Gray has picked up 16 or more outs in 11 of his 20 starts (55%) this season and six of his last nine outings.
The Mets have been a below average offense all season long, so Gray should have a chance to shut them down. Even though he has a higher FIP (4.77), Gray should be able to work into the sixth inning on Thursday.
Dylan Cease UNDER 5.5 hits allowed (-135)
Dylan Cease has taken a step back from his performance last season, but he’s still not allowing a ton of hits.
Cease has given up less than six hits in 12 of his last 15 starts (since the start of May), and he didn’t allow more than five hits in any of his outings in June. Both of his starts against Cleveland, he held them to just five hits.
The Cleveland Guardians are one of the worst offenses in the bigs this season, ranking 24th in the league in OPS.
I’ll take a shot on Cease to keep Cleveland in check on Thursday.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.