Counting on Quality: Best MLB Quality Start Picks for April 30 (Back Cortes, Webb, Peralta)
When I decided to put my picks out in the public and write about betting I knew sooner or later there would be days like this.
Teams are still winning quality starts at nearly a 70% clip and that number is closer to 80% when one team gets a quality start and the other doesn't.
The difficult part has been picking when the quality will come to fruition and that has been a big moving target as the record indicates.
Season Record: 14-18 Net Units: -6.81
Injuries to some of the most reliable and dominant pitchers haven't helped, but there are no excuses here, I've simply got to do better.
New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles have cost me several times this year in the quality start picks, but this isn't about revenge, but rather the matchup of Nestor Cortes vs. Dean Kremer.
The Yankees have won only two of Nestor Cortes six starts, but it hasn't been his fault, as Cortes has thrown quality starts three times in his last four outings with the Bombers scoring a total of one run in the last two.
New York was shut out by the Orioles yesterday after scoring 15 runs in back-to-back games against the Brewers, but I like a Yankees offense to bounce back in this spot.
Cortes is stretched out having hit 100+ pitches twice and 94 the other two in his last four starts, so he'll likely be around for a while.
Meanwhile, the Orioles counter with Dean Kremer whose 1-2 with a 4.61 ERA and only made it past 5.2 innings once in five starts.
Kremer's underlying numbers are a mixed bag, but his Stuff+ is only 86 and the Yankees have been crushing the ball recently as Aaron Judge's bat has woken up for three long balls in his last seven games.
This one's in Baltimore, but I like the Yankees on the Money Line.
PICK: Yankees Money Line -118
San Francisco Giants at Boston Red Sox
Logan Webb is about as reliable as they come, but the Giants haven't always backed him, particularly last season.
Things have gotten better for Webb this season, and the Giants have won his last four starts, including one on the road.
With five quality starts in six outings, Webb has been a machine.
Over his last four starts Webb has gotten 15, 14, 14 and 18 ground balls, gone at least 7 innings in each start and given up three earned runs in 29 innings.
The Red Sox pitching staff has been out of this world so far and Cooper Criswell shut down Cleveland for five innings last time out.
The game is in Boston where the Sox are only 5-8, but the Giants are the same 5-8 on the road.
Quite simply, I'm taking Logan Webb over Cooper Criswell.
PICK: Giants Money Line -130
Tampa Bay Rays vs Milwaukee Brewers
Recently nominated as one of the top 10 pitchers in the game Freddy Peralta was lit up last time out in Pittsburgh, but the Brewers still won the game.
As a matter of fact, they've won every game Peralta has started this season (5), with Peralta throwing three quality starts and missing another by a single out.
The Rays are in last place in the American League East, having just been swept by the White Sox and winning just once in their last seven games before their 1-0 win against the Brewers on Monday.
The Rays counter with lefty Tyler Alexander, who's been decent lately, but hasn't provided much length, meaning the Rays could be relying heavily on a bullpen with a 5.15 ERA.
These are not the Rays of old, but rather a team with a wRC+ a couple of ticks below league average and a team ERA that ranks 24th in the league.
The Brewers offense comes in sixth in wRC+, averages over 5 runs a game and isn't likely to be held down two days in a row by this Rays pitching staff.
The run line offers incredible value here with Peralta on the mound.
PICK: Brewers Run Line -1.5 +160
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.