Counting on Quality: Best MLB Quality Start Picks for April 9 (Back Glasnow, Eovaldi)
A week and a half into the season there's been a lot of pitcher injuries which have exacerbated the typical early season volatility.
Two of the best quality start arms from 2023, Gerrit Cole and Justin Steele, are on the shelf, not to mention Spencer Strider and a host of other top notch arms, leading me to have to dig a little deeper in this endeavor.
Still, teams that get quality starts are winning at a 67% clip early in 2024, which gives me confidence moving forward.
Tuesday's slate is filled with potentially, electric matchups like Cristian Javier vs. Cole Ragans and George Kirby vs. Chris Bassitt, but I've identified four games to consider where one team has a decided advantage on the mound.
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As you can see, I've got some work to do to get back on the right side of the ledger.
Season Record: 5-8 Net Units: -3.56
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Minnesota Twins
Not only are the Twins not playing well to begin the 2024 season, they now have to face Tyler Glasnow and the Dodgers with Louie Varland on the mound.
Varland was sneaky good in 2023 with five quality starts in 10 starts overall, but this is the time where we start focusing a bit more on 2024 vs. 2023 and Glasnow already has two quality starts this season, both of which the Dodgers won.
PICK: Dodgers Money Line -185
Oakland Athletics vs Texas Rangers
Alex Wood has struggled in his two starts with the A's, which should come as no surprise and the Rangers have dropped two straight to the Astros, scoring a total of six runs.
Nathan Eovaldi has two quality starts on the season already and I expect the Rangers to put up runs in this one.
The run line has hurt me so far in 2024, with the A's being one of the main culprits, but I believe the Texas bats are just too good to be held down three straight games at Globe Life Field.
PICK: Rangers Run Line -1.5 -113
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies
Are you sensing a theme yet? Merrill Kelly also has two quality starts under his belt in 2024, one of those against the Colorado Rockies on March 29.
The environment will be different in Coors Field vs. the desert or Arizona, but the results will be similar.
With the amount of juice on this one, it's tempting to take the run line, but baby steps first until we get more 2024 data.
PICK: Diamondbacks Money Line -196
Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego Padres
You may be surprised to find out that Joe Musgrove and his 6.28 ERA is one of my quality start All-Stars, along with Cole, Bassitt, Steele and Zack Wheeler.
Musgrove threw 11 quality starts in 17 total starts last season (65%) and is one for three in early 2024.
This start may define how Musgrove is perceived as a quality starter in 2024, so there's definitely some risk in this selection, but this pick is supported by the longer term data and Musgrove's most recent start in Petco Park.
PICK: Padres Money Line -162
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