Counting on Quality: Best MLB Quality Start Picks for May 17 (Back Fried, Peralta, Skubal)
There's no sugarcoating the disaster of my picks on Tuesday, when I went a putrid 1-3 on the day.
I had one game rained out, with the pitcher I was backing going on win the next day and another pitcher getting tossed after three innings in a game his team eventually won by a run in extra innings, but I was on the run line.
I'd like to think these things even out over time, but that's not how it feels at the moment, but such is life betting on baseball.
Still, here I am with three more games on today's slate.
San Diego Padres vs Atlanta Braves
Max Fried takes on Matt Waldron and the San Diego Padres in Atlanta as the Braves look to keep rolling.
Fried has four quality starts in eight outings on the season, including two of the last three where he no-hit his opponent for six innings (Mariners) and seven innings (Mets).
On the flip side, Waldron has a 5.49 ERA and 4.51 xFIP, with one quality start in eight tries on the season.
Those numbers are reflected in the -215 money line number for this game, necessitating taking the Braves run line.
I mentioned getting burned by the run line in Tuesday's bets, but these are the Braves and they mash pitchers like this.
PICK: Braves Run Line -1.5 -105
Milwaukee Brewers vs Houston Astros
Freddy Peralta has four quality starts in eight total starts on the season, but only one in his last four outings.
Peralta hasn't been elite, but the Brewers are 7-1 in his starts and he's facing Hunter Brown, who had been relegated to the bullpen after starting the season 0-4 with an 8.89 ERA.
A nice outing out of the bullpen in his native Detroit, dropped his ERA to 7.79, but the Brewers can are second in the league to the Dodgers with a 119 OPS+, while coming in third in runs scored.
Brown's underlying numbers aren't as bad as his traditional numbers and his Stuff+ is 105, but that hasn't led to success on the mound.
The Astros are on a bit of a roll and they very well could take two of three in this series, but I'm taking Peralta on Friday and am only paying 8 cents to do so.
PICK: Brewers Money Line -108
Detroit Tigers vs Arizona Diamondbacks
I admit to being a Tarik Skubal skeptic entering the 2024 season, believing a good chunk of his success last year came against bad teams.
I can learn, though and I've watched as Skubal has tossed six quality starts through mid-May, including games against the Twins, Rangers and Royals.
Skubal's gone six or more innings in seven of eight starts, hasn't allowed a run in three starts this season and allowed two or less earned runs in seven of eight 2024 starts.
His ERA (2.02), xERA (2.12), FIP (2.01) and xFIP (2.58) all scream elite.
Arizona counters with Ryne Nelson, who has a lone quality start in six outings and owns a 5.33 ERA.
Nelson does have a Stuff+ number at 105, but that hasn't translated to results yet.
PICK: Tigers Money Line -142
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.