Counting on Quality: Best MLB Quality Start Picks for March 28 (Back Steele, Valdez, Burnes)
During the 2023 season, MLB pitchers recorded a quality start a little over 34% of the time, with a quality start being identified as at least six innings pitched and three earned runs or less allowed.
Last season the average quality start lasted 6.5 innings and resulted in 1.30 earned runs allowed for an average ERA of 1.80.
Teams that get a quality start won 69% of the time in 2023 and if only one of the two starters in a game registers a quality start that number jumps to 79% for the team with the quality start.
Quality starts help win games and we can use this to our advantage when considering games to place wagers on.
We should note that the team that gets the quality start matters: Oakland was 16-16 when getting a quality start in 2023 while Atlanta was 42-9.
Opening day is unique in that there will generally be more aces facing each other than at any time of the season and while that makes for great matchups, it doesn't necessarily lead to the type of advantage we're searching for in the betting market.
Spencer Strider vs. Zack Wheeler is a great pitching matchup and we'll feature each of those aces a lot this season, just probably not when they're facing each other.
Also, for this exercise, we are looking for team wins and are not necessarily interested in whether the starting pitcher is the pitcher of record, though there are trends in that data, too.
With this in mind let's take a look at the Opening Day matchups and see if we can identify potential betting opportunities based on the starters history of quality starts.
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Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals
The Twins won 12 of Pablo Lopez's 20 quality starts in 2023, one of which was a shutout of Kansas City in Minneapolis and current Royals are only batting .176 off Lopez with 1 home run in 87 at-bats.
The Royals should be much improved in 2024, but improvement is relative.
Cole Ragans spun seven quality starts in 12 outings after being traded from the Rangers last summer and the Twins have limited experience against him, so who that favors is a bit of a mystery.
Ragans is someone we'll keep an eye on as the season develops, but the Twins and Lopez have the advantage in this spot, though concerns with the bullpen should be noted.
PICK: TWINS ML -122
Chicago Cubs at Texas Rangers
Justin Steele is one of our Quality Start All-Stars, throwing quality starts in 20 of 30 outings in 2023, with the Cubs winning 15 of those, including one against the World Champion Texas Rangers in which Steele limited the Rangers to one earned run over six innings last April.
Injuries and free agency have decimated the Rangers pitching staff and put into question their ability to defend their title.
Steele's sample size against the Rangers is small, but favors the Cubs ace and I'm getting plus money since he's facing the defending Champions in Arlington on opening night.
Questions persist about how Steele manages to thrive with only two pitches, but all we care about are results and Steele delivers.
Justin Steele at plus money? Sign me up.
PICK: CUBS ML +104
Los Angeles Angels at Baltimore Orioles
The Milwaukee Brewers won only 10 of Corbin Burnes 19 quality starts in 2023, but Burnes has a much better team around him in Baltimore and one of those wins from last season was against the Angels.
Current Angels are batting .188 off Burnes and while the Orioles may take a step back from the 101 wins of 2023, it doesn't have to start on opening day.
The Orioles bullpen problems warrant consideration of a First 5 play, but the Birds are playing at home and Burnes has a clear advantage over Patrick Sandoval, so I'm sticking with the full-game run line.
PICK: ORIOLES RUN LINE -1.5 +118
New York Yankees at Houston Astros
Framber Valdez had an uneven season in 2023 as he adjusted to the pitch clock and the Astros struggled to support him early.
Houston was 13-7 in Valdez's 20 quality starts, but amazingly lost Framber's first four quality starts at home in 2023 as part of the Astros struggles in Minute Maid Park, so you may want to consider treading lightly early in 2024.
On the other hand, the current Yankees are batting a paltry .164 against the lefty and the Astros are facing Nestor Cortes, who they've hit well, and not Gerrit Cole (another Quality Start All-Star).
I considered the run line due to the high juice, but ultimately decided it was too much risk for opening day.
PICK: ASTROS ML -152
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.