Best MLB Season Win Totals To Bet Ahead of Opening Day

Expect these teams to be successful or disappointing in the upcoming 2024 season.

Mar 27, 2024; Columbus, Ohio, USA; Baseballs sit on the track during Columbus Clippers practice
Mar 27, 2024; Columbus, Ohio, USA; Baseballs sit on the track during Columbus Clippers practice / Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA
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Opening Day is upon us and a brand new season of Major League Baseball in 2024. It’s a sport unlike any other where it’s an oversized marathon of a season, a grueling test of the mind and body that spans from the end of March, going deep into October.

One of the most exciting prop bets available is team win totals. While 32 teams will chase for the commissioner’s trophy come this fall, only 14 will make the cut to do so. With that in mind, here are the best teams to bank on for their win total props as we begin writing the story of 2024.

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Seattle Mariners OVER 87.5 Wins

The American League West is going to be must watch television throughout the 2024 season and I believe the Seattle Mariners will be grabbing headlines once again. Coming off an optimistic 88-74 campaign in 2023, they’re back for more in a challenging division.

In one of the most exciting small market teams in the league, the arrow continues to climb upward for a resilient and motivated Mariners team. They narrowly missed out on the playoffs last season after falling just short against the other powers within the AL West in the Houston Astros and Texas Rangers. 

There is plenty to be excited about with 23-year-old center fielder Julio Rodriguez, who is the core of this offense coming off a .275 season with 32 home runs and 103 RBI. He can only get better and will likely be in the discussion for AL MVP. The lineup has improved by landing shortstop Jorge Polanco in a trade from Minnesota, outfielder Mitch Haniger returning from the San Francisco Giants and signing catcher Mitch Garver in free agency.

The overall strength of this team is the pitching. There is a lethal 1-2-3 punch awaiting teams with Luis Castillo, Logan Gilbert and George Kirby ready to rip apart lineups in 2024. The trio all finished in the top 50 in strikeouts and top 25 in ERA last season. Durability is critical in this league and each threw close to 200 innings.

This is a difficult division to be in, but I have faith in a Mariners team that continues to get stronger under the direction of manager Scott Servais. With an efficient lineup in place and a dangerous starting rotation, there is a lot of opportunity for Seattle to be in the mix for not just the playoffs, but the AL West. I’ll side with the over on a win total that reflects similar to 2022.

Detroit Tigers OVER 80.5 Wins

Staying in the American League, I believe there could be an unexpected roar of the Tigers in the Central division this season. This team comes off an improved year in 2023, but still seeking to put it in the past. Despite finishing second in the division, there was a 78-84 ledger to their name.

Detroit is built with a lot of youth, but has moving pieces within the organization who can carry the weight this season. A rotation led by up and coming Tarik Skubal is what catches my eye the most. The 27-year-old had a delayed 2023 campaign after recovering from flexor tendon surgery. Skubal entered into the rotation in June and went 7-3 with a 2.80 ERA, 102 Ks in 80.1 innings pitched.

He’s now the front man on this staff and will look to build off those consistent numbers. Behind him, new free agent signings Kenta Maeda and Jack Flaherty.

On the offensive side, first baseman Spencer Torkelson looks ready to shine after being drafted as the top pick in the 2020 draft. He made his debut on the major league diamond in 2023 and did not disappoint. A line of .233 with 31 home runs and 94 RBI caught a lot of eyes for a player who’s becoming a new face of this franchise at the age of 24.

Manager A.J. Hinch is the current frontrunner on the odds list for the AL Manager of the Year award as well. He has a resume full of playoff experience while in Houston, making it to multiple World Series despite all the sign stealing allegations.

I have faith in the Tigers to break out this season and become a surprise contender for the wild card bubble. For that to happen, they will go over .500 with a roster that is beginning to form together. I’m liking the over in this position.

Tampa Bay Rays UNDER 84.5 Wins

In what should be a wild American League East, I’m looking at the Tampa Bay Rays as a team that could be an outlier. This is a different looking roster in 2024 that I fear may not be able to keep up with the pace in a division likely to feature a pair of championship contending teams. Tampa Bay is removed from a 99-63 record in 2023 that resulted in a wild card series loss at the hands of the world champion Texas Rangers.

The steam is lost offensively with the absences of shortstop Wander Franco, who is likely to be placed on administrative leave and right fielder Josh Lowe dealing with an oblique injury. Additionally, key starting pitchers Shane McClanahan and Drew Rasmussen will both be out long term.

McClanahan is recovering from Tommy John surgery and is expected to miss all of 2024. Rasmussen won’t return until deep in the year with an elbow injury.

Yandy Diaz, Brandon Lowe and Randy Arozarena make up what should be a productive top part of the lineup, but outside of that area, questions are left to be answered. Jose Siri, newly acquired infielder Jose Caballero and DH Harold Ramirez are some of the names who must be able to consistently piece together quality at-bats.

Shortstop Amed Rosario joins this roster from Cleveland which is another effort to fill Franco’s space in the infield. He will receive expanded playing time as a result behind Caballero as he works into this team.

The new ace of the staff is likely going to be Zach Eflin in his second season with Tampa Bay. He enters off a 16-8, 3.50 ERA campaign in 31 games during 2023. Aaron Civale and Zack Littell are the other top options in this Rays rotation that is still manageable, but the absences of McClanahan and Rasmussen truly loom large with the season set to begin.

Not to mention, Tyler Glasnow being traded in a deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers is another name now gone from what could be an A-list of arms when at full health.

The tide seems to be turning with the Rays teams of the past. These key injuries and some questionable lineup production could mark regression in 2024 which makes me turn toward the under on their win total.

The team dynamics can change so rapidly in a sport that is incredibly difficult to forecast. This is a brutal league and division that this organization doesn’t feel equipped to contend in. I’ll hop on the under here as the Rays will get stung this time around.


Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.