Best MLB Upset Picks for May 27 (Back Brewers and Rangers)
One of the good things about getting older and maturing is being able to appreciate the opposition when they are good.
For me, gone are the days of not liking a player just for the uniform he wears, with some notable exceptions.
Last Saturday and Sunday I found myself in Minute Maid Park watching the Astros and Brewers battle it out and my takeaway from those games has helped form one of my upset picks, despite the outcome not being what I hoped for.
The odds in this article are via BetMGM Sportsbook
Milwaukee Brewers at Boston Red Sox
I was in the stands for Bryse Wilson's last start against the Houston Astros and while Wilson didn't set the world on fire, he also didn't embarrass himself.
Kutter Crawford will get most of the love when the starters are discussed, and he's had a fine season with a 2.17 ERA to date.
Crawford's xERA is over a full run higher (3.21) and the Red Sox are just 3-7 in his 10 starts on the season.
Wilson's xERA (4.94) is a full two-plus runs higher than his actual ERA and that's worrisome, but I see him as more of someone who eats innings at the beginning of games, instead of out of the bullpen and the Red Sox are the definition of mediocre on offense (100 OPS+)
My biggest takeaway from two Brewers games last week was that the Brewers are a dangerous offensive team, as their 113 OPS+ shows (6th in MLB).
From William Contreras to Brice Turang to Christian Yelich to Joey Ortiz, this team can hit and they have a chance in every game.
Contreras' at-bat against Justin Verlander was the stuff of legends, but more than that I came away impressed with the Brewers lineup from top to bottom.
I'll take the Brewers at a plus number in this one against a Red Sox team with an offense that has been better on the road than in Fenway Park.
PICK: Brewers Money Line +110
Texas Rangers vs Minnesota Twins
I thought the Rangers might struggle in 2024, coming off their first World Series title, but I never thought they would be under .500 after 51 games.
There's a bunch of reasons for that, one being injuries and those injuries have led to journeyman Jose Urena getting three starts in May.
In those three starts, Urena has given up just four earned runs in 17.2 innings, tossing two quality starts in the process.
I'm buying low on a Rangers team in an offensive funk: They were swept in Colorado, scoring just six runs over three games, then scored eight runs in three games at Cleveland, 10 in three games against the Angels, and 8 in three games in Philadelphia.
Add all that up and that's 32 runs in their last 12 games, for an average of 2.67 runs per game.
The Rangers will break out of the team slump at some point and this is simply a bet where I believe I'm getting value on the Rangers at this number.
PICK: Rangers Money Line +126
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.