Best MLB Upset Picks for Opening Day (Fade Braves and Rangers)
Opening day is finally here and so are opportunities for bettors to use the plentiful data from Major League Baseball to find value in the market.
I've found two opening-day games that I believe offer an opportunity at plus money to get the MLB season off on the right foot.
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Philadelphia Phillies (+110) vs Atlanta Braves
Zack Wheeler vs. Spencer Strider is the best matchup of Opening Day for my money and this should be a fantastic matchup in Philly.
The Braves are expected to contend for the World Series with a powerful lineup returning and a rotation that begins with their ace, Spencer Strider, on the mound with a new pitch to add to his already devastating arsenal.
On the other side, the Phillies are throwing Zack Wheeler, whose numbers from 2023 look rather pedestrian in comparison: 13-6, 3.61 ERA and a 119 ERA+.
Hidden in those numbers is the quality of Wheeler's starts. Twenty-one times in thirty-two 2023 starts he gave the Phillies a quality start.
Wheeler has extensive experience against the Braves and they've taken him deep some, but the Braves are going to do that against anyone as long as Ronald Acuna, Jr. and Matt Olson, among others, are in the lineup.
For his part, Strider has held the Phillies to a .192 batting average and pitched very well against them in 2023, winning all four starts against Philadelphia in 2023, including two in the City of Brotherly Love.
None of those matchups came against Wheeler, nor did they include a ravenous Opening Day crowd.
I see this game as a toss-up and as such, getting the Phillies at +110 at home in front of an Opening Day crowd tips the scales in their favor.
PICK: Phillies ML +110
Chicago Cubs (+104) at Texas Rangers
I'm expecting the Cubs to be much improved in 2024 and the Rangers to take a step back after winning it all last season.
The Rangers will still field a powerful lineup, but this isn't the Braves or Dodgers we're talking about, this team won 90 games last season and didn't even win their division.
They got hot at the right time and deserved to win the title, but will have to bash their way to wins this season and many question if they'll even make the playoffs, much less repeat as Champions.
Nathan Eovaldi is a quality starter, but we shouldn't overlook the mess that is the Rangers bullpen, especially since Aroldis Chapman is now a Pirate.
A lot has been made about how well the Rangers hit left-handers last season and Texas was in the top five in wRC+ and wOBA vs. lefties last season.
But there's average left-handers and there's Justin Steele, who shut down Texas last April, holding the club to 1 run on 4 hits over 6 innings. albeit in Wrigley Field.
While there's a distinct home-field advantage in Philadelphia, Globe Life Field doesn't have the same feel, though it certainly could be raucous as the Rangers begin defense of their crown.
In the end, I'm getting Justin Steele at plus money and that's not something I'm going to pass up.
PICK: CUBS ML +104
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