Buffalo opened as a five-point favorite at WynnBET Sportsbook, but with favorites winning with ease in yesterday’s slate, the public has pushed the line all the way to Buffalo -6.0 heading into tonight.
Here are our team’s best bets for tonight’s matchup:
Tennessee Titans (+6.0) vs. Buffalo Bills (-110)
The Bills look like world beaters last week beating the Kansas City Chiefs on the road, but each week is different and I now see value on the home underdog Titans. Tennessee's defense remains an issue, but the offense should be in good shape with Julio Jones set to return.
The Titans are a tricky team for me to bet. I don't like betting on them as favorites (see: Jets in Week 4), but I like backing them as underdogs. With Mike Vrabel as head coach, Tennessee is 15-11 against the spread as an underdog, good for 57%.
The offense can keep pace with the Bills on the right night and I think they are live for an upset. The Bills just knocked off a team that has had their number and dominated the AFC of late. That was the coming out party for Buffalo, and now I'll fade them with their perception at their highest. -- Reed Wallach
The Bills trouncing of the Chiefs in prime time last week has them likely feeling high and mighty about themselves this week. While it was an impressive win and they did it on the site where they lost the AFC Championship game a season ago, Buffalo is still beatable.
They still have the occasional tendency to lose their edge when you least expect it, like, I don’t know, Week 1 against the pitiful Steelers at home?
Meanwhile, Julio Jones will be active for Tennessee in what I expect to be his breakout game of the season. The once-hyped-up combination of Jones and A.J. Brown have combined for just 22 catches and one single touchdown so far this year. That has to change.
Don’t forget, when these two teams played last year, the Bills were also the talk of the AFC and ended up getting destroyed in Tennessee 42-16.
Time to zag while the rest of the betting world is zigging! After all the favorites destroyed the sportsbooks this week, I love the Titans to cover both the 6-points and also win outright on Monday night. -- Ben Heisler
Derrick Henry OVER 12.5 Receiving Yards (-125)
This is an overreaction to Derrick Henry’s catchless performance last week if I’ve ever seen one.
The Titans running back is one of the most dynamic players in the NFL, and he’s seen at least two targets in every game until last week’s thrashing of the lowly Jacksonville Jaguars. Plus, did we forget what Henry did the last time these two teams faced off?
Henry has hit the over on this prop in every other game, and I think he has a bigger role as a receiver this week against a Bills team that allows the second-fewest rushing yards per game this season (78.4).
Henry might surpass this prop total with one screen pass, and with Buffalo allowing 36.4 receiving yards to running backs this season, I love the over for Henry. -- Peter Dewey