Best NBA First Basket Scorer Picks for Monday, May 6 (Target Jalen Brunson, Mike Conley)
By Peter Dewey
The second round of the NBA playoffs is upon us!
With just eight teams left competing for an NBA title, our options our limited when it comes to the first basket market, but we now have a strong sample size of how each team wants to play in the postseason.
Luckily, tonight we also have a Game 2 between the Denver Nuggets and Minnesota Timberwolves where we can take data from early on in Game 1 to help make tonight's first basket prediction.
Here's who I'm eyeing to score first on Monday night:
NBA First Basket Scorer Picks and Predictions
- Nikola Jokic First Basket Scorer (+380)
- Mike Conley First Basket Scorer (+1050)
- Jalen Brunson First Basket Scorer (+475)
Nikola Jokic First Basket Scorer (+380)
Nikola Jokic was called for a three-second violation on the Denver Nuggets’ first possession in Game 1, but he then attempted the team’s first shot of the game after a Mike Conley miss.
Jokic didn’t make the bucket, but he’s still going to be the go-to option for Denver with Jamal Murray (calf) struggling early on in Game 1.
The MVP favorite ended up scoring 32 points on 25 shots in Game 1, and he’s been a first-basket machine this season, scoring first 17 times and taking the first shot of the game 22.4 percent of the time.
Even as the favorite in this market, he’s worth a bet in Game 2.
Mike Conley First Basket Scorer (+1050)
Yes, Anthony Edwards scored the first basket in Game 1, but it came on the second possession for Minnesota, as Mike Conley actually took the first shot of the game for the Wolves.
Amongst everyone in action on Monday, Conley attempts the first shot the fourth most (13.6 percent of the time), which is also the highest percentage amongst players on Minnesota.
That’s led to the veteran point guard scoring 10 first baskets on the season. So, why is he priced at the second-longest odds to score first?
He shouldn't be.
Conley may not get another early look, but based on Game 1 – and his season-long numbers – this is a massive misprice by oddsmakers.
Jalen Brunson First Basket Scorer (+475)
Neither the New York Knicks or Indiana Pacers win the jump ball at a higher than 50 percent of the time this season, so this could be a tricky matchup to handicap early in the series.
Because of that, I’m going to roll with the player who takes the first shot more than anyone else in action on Monday – Jalen Brunson.
This season, Brunson has attempted the first shot of the game 26.5 percent of the time, racking up 14 first baskets in the process. He’s also led the NBA in usage rate so far this postseason, so we know the ball will be in his hands early and often.
Until we know how Indiana plans to defend Brunson, he’s a great bet to get things started for the Knicks at home.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.