Best NBA First Basket Scorer Picks for Thursday, March 14 (Target Jalen Brunson, Kevin Durant)
By Peter Dewey
Looking for a potentially quick -- and big -- win in the NBA on Thursday?
Taking a chance on a first basket scorer could be the way to go, as these bets are usually decided within the opening minutes of the game and could allow bettors to cash in on some pretty favorable odds, usually with the favorite in each game sitting around +300 or +400 to score first.
With just six games in the NBA on Thursday, who should we target in this market?
Here are the players that I'm thinking have value to score first on March 14:
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NBA First Basket Scorer Picks and Predictions
- Kyrie Irving First Basket Scorer (+600)
- Jalen Brunson First Basket Scorer (+500)
- Kevin Durant First Basket Scorer (+500)
Kyrie Irving First Basket Scorer (+600)
While the Dallas Mavericks may not win the jump ball on Thursday night, there is too much value on Kyrie Irving to score the first basket for me to pass up.
Luka Doncic injured his hamstring and did not return in Wednesday night’s win over the Golden State Warriors, potentially making Irving a one-man show against the Oklahoma City Thunder tonight.
In five games without Luka this season, Kyrie has gone bonkers, averaging 30.6 points, 6.6 assists and 6.0 rebounds per game.
In the first basket market, Kyrie is undervalued for a player who takes the first shot the most on the team (18.2 percent) and has scored the most first baskets (nine) for the Mavs this season. Doncic (eight first baskets) takes the first shot 13.8 percent of the time, second on the team, and then there is no other player in the starting lineup over 6.6 percent.
That means this is going to be Irving’s possession to start the game if Luka sits – and I think he will.
Jalen Brunson First Basket Scorer (+500)
This is another player that I just can’t pass up the value on.
New York Knicks guard Jalen Brunson is usually the favorite in this market, but oddsmakers seem to think the Portland Trail Blazers will win the tip, setting Deandre Ayton at +340 and Jerami Grant at +500 in this market.
So, why bet Brunson?
Well, the Knicks win the tip just 46.2 percent of the time, but that’s a higher percentage than Portland (41.5 percent) this season.
Brunson also takes the first shot of the game more than any other player in action tonight – 31.7 percent of the time – which has led to him scoring 12 first baskets.
To put Brunson’s early-game usage in perspective, the next closest player to him in first shot percentage tonight is Boston’s Jaylen Brown, who takes the first shot 22.4 percent of the time. That’s a massive difference.
Bet Brunson in a game where the Knicks should roll.
Kevin Durant First Basket Scorer (+500)
The Boston Celtics won’t have Kristaps Porzingis (hamstring) on Thursday, which is a good sign for the Phoenix Suns’ chances of winning the jump ball.
Overall, Phoenix wins the tip 70.8 percent of the time – a higher rate than any other team playing tonight – so I like the Suns’ chances of getting the first possession tonight.
As for Durant, I think he’s a solid bet at +500 considering the fact that he’s attempted the first shot more than any other Phoenix player (21.1 percent of the time) this season.
Durant has similar odds to Devin Booker (+550), who takes the first shot in just 6.6 percent of his games this season. So, there’s some serious value on KD to score first.
KD also leads the Suns in first baskets this season with eight. My bigger fear is Boston getting the ball first, but I’d be shocked if Al Horford wins the tip in this game tonight.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.