Best NBA First Basket Scorer Picks for Tuesday, April 16 (D'Angelo Russel Undervalued)
By Peter Dewey
Postseason basketball is HERE!
The NBA's Play-In Tournament begins on Tuesday night with two matchups -- one that will determine the No. 7 seed in the Western Conference.
I'll be dialed into both games, but if you want a quick thrill at the start of the Los Angeles Lakers-New Orleans Pelicans matchup or the Golden State Warriors-Sacramento Kings clash, there is one bet to make:
A First Basket Scorer!
Here's who I'm targeting to score first in each game with playoff spots on the line:
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NBA First Basket Scorer Picks and Predictions
- De’Aaron Fox First Basket Scorer (+550)
- D’Angelo Russell First Basket Scorer (+900)
De’Aaron Fox First Basket Scorer (+550)
I won’t lie, this is a tough game to predict a first basket scorer in since the Warriors win the jump ball 40.2 percent of the time and the Kings win it even less – 28.0 percent of the time.
Still, if you’re going to take anyone, De’Aaron Fox is the play at +550 odds.
The Kings point guard has been forced into an even bigger scoring role with Malik Monk and Kevin Huerter out, and he’s averaging 26.6 points per game in the 2023-24 campaign.
So far in first basket stats, Fox has recorded 10 on the season, attempting the first shot in 12.2 percent of his games this season. Out of everyone in this game, only Andrew Wiggins (12.9 percent) has a higher first-shot percentage than Fox.
If the Kings win the tip, I’d expect Fox to be heavily involved in the opening action on offense. He’s worth a shot in a game that could really go either way early on based on both teams struggles at winning possession off the jump ball.
D’Angelo Russell First Basket Scorer (+900)
Anthony Davis is the obvious choice for the Lakers, but he’s questionable coming to this game with a back injury.
Personally, I think D’Angelo Russell (+900) is undervalued in this market, making him a value bet on Tuesday.
Russell has the third-highest first-shot percentage of anyone in this game (13.2 percent) behind only Davis and Pelicans center Jonas Valanciunas. Yet, D’Lo is ninth out of the 10 projected starters in the odds to score first tonight.
Only Herb Jones has lower odds than Russell, which is extremely confusing since Russell has the fourth-most first baskets on the season amongst the projected starters in this matchup. It may be a bit of a dart throw, but there’s no way Russell should be priced at +900 based on these numbers.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.